The US cryptocurrency market experienced a trend reversal in the past week, particularly with net capital inflows returning to the Bitcoin spot ETF, while the Ethereum ETF continued to face capital outflows. According to CoinGlass data, the Bitcoin ETF saw capital inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $745 million, with BlackRock's IBIT performing the most impressively, experiencing its best single-day net inflow since February 4th, with over $274 million flowing in that day.
VX: TZ7971
Meanwhile, Bitcoin rose about 5% in the past week, reaching $86,930; Ethereum's price also increased by over 8%, breaking $2,000. Despite Ethereum's strong performance, ETF capital outflows remain severe, with a total outflow of $102 million between March 18-22, and a monthly outflow of $760 million, with only Grayscale's ETHE and 21Shares' CETH seeing slight capital inflows.
Ethereum's selling pressure was also influenced by reduced whale activity. The number of addresses holding over 10,000 Ethereum decreased from 999 to 919, with large holders buying 470,000 Ethereum last week, and approximately 1.2 million Ethereum flowing out of exchanges in the past 48 days, potentially being transferred to cold wallets, indicating a possible turning point in the Ethereum market.
Today's fear index is 45, returning to a neutral state. The market is as we predicted yesterday, with Bitcoin facing pressure around 88,000. We can observe this level, and if unable to break through, short-term withdrawal is advisable. Bitcoin's support is gradually rising, with the first support level at 85,000. The market is still largely influenced by news, so attention should be paid to Trump's subsequent statements and changes in tariff issues.
Against the backdrop of institutional funds and Bitcoin ETF reinflows, Michael Saylor's Microstrategy company (later renamed Strategy) once again made a significant Bitcoin purchase, acquiring over $500 million worth.
Spending $584 million in a week at a price of $84,529. Between March 17-23, the company purchased 6,911 Bitcoins for approximately $584 million, with an average purchase price of $84,529 per Bit.
After this acquisition, the company's total holdings officially exceeded 500,000, reaching 506,137 Bits, with a cumulative investment of around $33.7 billion, and an average purchase cost of $66,608 per Bit (including related fees and expenses).
Under global trade war concerns, Strategy remains committed to "buying the dip"
Attention will be on the tariff issue after April 2nd. Some tariffs may be canceled, depending on international consensus. Currently, this is the primary market driver.
Risk assets may lack clear direction before tariff uncertainty is resolved. However, if the tariff issue is addressed between April 2nd and July, it could bring a positive market catalyst.
To truly drive the market into a bull market, either the SLR exemption policy needs to be restored or quantitative easing (QE) restarted. $77,000 might be Bitcoin's bottom, but the market may still experience volatility, so maintaining flexibility and keeping cash flow ready is advisable.
