Many small investors predictive to build investment strategies in the current unstable global financial context. A tool that has recently attracted widespread attention is the Benner Cycle.
This economic forecast chart has existed for over 150 years. Many believe it has accurately predicted major financial crthe mid-1920s. s recent economic developments are challenging that belief.
When does the Benner Cycle predict market peaks?
Samuel Benner suffered heavy losses in the <1873 crisis. that researching patterns and a bookenting price fluctuations. In 1875, he wrote Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, the introducing the Benner Cycle.
This cycle is not based on complex mathematical models from quantitative finance. Instead, Benner relied on agricultural commodity price cycles that he observed through his own experience><.
Finally, Benner—then a farmer a note: "Certainly." Nearly two centuries later, that note and attracted renewed attention p>
Benner Cycle. Source: Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices
Using a farmer's perspective, Benner believed that solar cycles significantly impact crop yields, thereby affecting agricultural prices. From this idea, he created a market forecast.
In the benchart:
- Line A marks panic years.
- Line B indicates boom years, which are good times to sell stocks and assets.
- Line C highlights recession years, which are ideal for accumulation and buying.
Benner made his forecast until 2059, although modern agriculture has changed significantly over nearly 200 years.
According to Wealth Management Canada, while the cycle does not precisely predict specific years, it has nearly matched major financial events—like the 1929 Great Depression—with only small deviations of a few years.
Investor Panos notes that the Benner Cycle has successfully predicted several important events: the Great Depression, World War II, the Dot-Com bubble, and the COVID-19 collapse. The chart also suggests that 2023 a good year to buy and 2026 will mark the next major market peak.
"2023 is the best recent buying time, and 2026 will be best the best selling time," Panos emphasized.
Small cryptocurrency investors widely share this chart, using it to support price increase scenarios for the 2025–2026 period.
"The Benner Cycle suggests a market peak around 2025, followed by an adjustment or recession in subsequent years. If this is true, speculative fervor in Crypto AI and emerging technologies could intensify in 2024–2025 investor mikewho.eth predicted.
Belief in the Benner Cycle Faces Increasing Challenges
Despite growing popularity, faith in the Benner Cycle is under pressure due to recent economic developments.
On 04/02, President Trump announced a controversial new tax plan. Global markets reacted negatively, starting the week deeply in red.
Black Monday" comparable to the famous 1987 stock market crash. On 04/07, total cryptocurrency market capitdroppedalization from $2.64 trillion 2.32. . Although beginning to recover, investor sentiment remains very fearful.Moreover, JPMorgan recently increased the global recession probability for 2025 to 60%. This change was triggered by the economic shock from ="nonew tariffs announced on Liberation Dayalso raised its recession forecast to 45% in the next 12 months—the highest since the post-pandemic inflation and interest rate period rate.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt criticized the Benner chart in an X (formerly Twitter) post on 04/ 2025.
"I'm not sure how much I can trust this. Ultimately, I only care about the trades I enter and exit. This type of chart is more distracting than useful to me. I can't short or go long with this specific chart, so me, it just vague," Peter commented.
However, despite concerns about recession and market behavior contradicting the Benner Cycle's optimistic outlook, some investors still believe in Samuel Benner's prophecy.
"Market peak in 2026. That gives us one more year if history decides to repeat. Sounds wild? Certainly! But remember: markets are notjjust numbers; they're mood, memory, and momentum. And sometimes those quirky old charts – not because they're magical, but because enough people believe they work!" — Crynet investor said.
Search trend for the keyword "Benner Cycle". Source: Google TrendAccording to Google Trends, the search interest in the Benner Cycle has peaked in the past month. This reflects the growing demand of small retail investors for optimistic stories, especially in the context of increasing economic and political uncertainty.
