
                                    <div>
                                      <h3>Market View</h3>
                                      <p>Bearish on BTC, approaching a major top</p>
                                      <h3>Trading Strategy</h3>
                                      <p>Low-leverage long-term short position, no change in position</p>
                                      <h3>Core Logic</h3>
                                      <p><ol>
    <li>
Accumulation Trend Score indicates large players are slowing accumulation
    </li>
    <li>
historically, score turning lighter signals tops. Multiple on-chain and technical indicators also point to a major top
    </li>
</ol></p>
                                    </div>
                                    

BTC 吸籌趨勢評分：大型參與者的增持行為正在放緩⚠️
上次介紹了「信念買家」的行為和 BTC 牛熊週期的關聯性（下方引文），
今天再來和各位分享一個有趣的鏈上指標：Accumulation Trend Score。
以下，我將介紹此指標的一些基礎原理、計算方式，
並且同時和各位報告一項目前出現的風險訊號👇：
📊 Accumulation Trend Score 指標介紹：
➡️ 分析過去一個月內，各族群錢包餘額變化的趨勢，以定義吸籌的強度
➡️ 分數介在 0 ~ 1 之間
➡️ 分數愈接近 1，代表過去一個月內，大型參與者吸籌愈積極
➡️ 分數愈接近 0，代表過去一個月內，大型參與者停止吸籌，甚至派發
➡️ 計算時，剔除礦工、交易所 ... 等特定族群的影響
➡️ 使用 90 天的窗口期，對數據作標準化處理，確保不同時段的可比性
如上圖所示：
🟪 顏色愈深，代表分數愈接近 1，大型參與者吸籌行為愈積極
🟨 顏色愈淺，代表分數愈接近 0，大型參與者停止吸籌，甚至派發
接著，搭配此圖，我們一起來看看目前市場的狀況：
1️⃣ 「2024 年 3 月，顏色由深至淺」
去年 3 月，第一次大規模派發出現（詳見置頂文），
BTC 橫向寬幅震盪了超過 200 天，山寨幣直接入熊，
而當時指標明顯從深色（積極吸籌）轉向淺色（停止吸籌、甚至派發）。
2️⃣ 「2025 年 1 月，顏色由深至淺」
今年 1 月，BTC 完成了第二次大規模派發（詳見置頂文），
指標的顏色也在 1 月時同步轉向淺色，市場隨後即見頂。
3️⃣ 「現在，顏色再次由深入淺」
如附圖所示，目前指標的顏色正在逐步入淺，
雖然尚未完全轉為黃色（最淺），但也可視為初步的風險訊號‼️
以上，結合諸多我先前分享的低相關性大級別頂部訊號，
包含 RUP 三段式背離、巨量 Realized Profit（https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1957254031405093303…）、
價格和 PSIP 相關性的偏移（https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1947832793133887647…）、
BTC 日線級別的新高 Stop Hunt（https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1956175277735993658…）、
技術線圖上的 Lower High 確認（https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1970307327363321923…）、
短期持有者平均成本被跌破（https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1971390248153416059…）、... 等，
我認為目前的 BTC 的確處於一個愈來愈接近大級別頂部的階段⚠️
最後再和各位朋友 update 一次：
我個人先前公開建倉的「低倍長線空單」，至今依然沒有改變，
兩次建倉均價皆為約 118 K，總槓桿倍數 = 1.11 倍：
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1948557253726142880…
以上就是今天的內容，希望對你有幫助；
風控第一，願各位都能順利守住自己辛苦打下的江山🫡

Signal Square

以信念買家的角度剖析 BTC 牛熊週期🔬
先前我曾介紹過「五大買方族群熱力圖」（https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1927539239903764555…），
其中有一族群被稱為「信念買家（Conviction Buyers）」，
是指「在 BTC 下跌時買入」的族群💎
平時五大族群熱力圖監測的是他們的中短期行為，
但如果把時框拉大，則可以得出有趣的現象👇：

貝格先生

Twitter

BTC Accumulation Trend Score Update: Big Players Are Slowing Down Their Buys ⚠️

Last time, I talked about “Conviction Buyers” and how their actions fit into BTC’s bull/bear cycles (see quoted thread below).  
Today, let’s dive into another interesting on-chain metric: Accumulation Trend Score.

Here’s a quick rundown of how this metric works, how it’s calculated, and a new risk signal I’m seeing 👇

📊 Accumulation Trend Score Explained:
➡️ Tracks the monthly change in wallet balances across different cohorts to measure the intensity of accumulation
➡️ Score ranges from 0 to 1
➡️ Closer to 1 = aggressive accumulation by large entities in the past month
➡️ Closer to 0 = large entities have stopped accumulating, or are even distributing
➡️ Removes miners, exchanges, and other specific groups from calculations
➡️ Uses a 90-day rolling window and normalizes data for cross-period comparability

As shown in the chart:
🟪 Darker color = score near 1, meaning strong accumulation by whales
🟨 Lighter color = score near 0, meaning whales have stopped accumulating or are distributing

Let’s look at the current market situation using this chart:

1️⃣ March 2024: Color shift from dark to light  
First large-scale distribution event (see pinned post).  
BTC went sideways for over 200 days, alts went full bear.  
Indicator shifted from dark (aggressive accumulation) to light (distribution/sell-off).

2️⃣ January 2025: Color shift from dark to light  
Second large-scale distribution event (see pinned post).  
Indicator turned light in Jan, market topped right after.

3️⃣ Now: Color is turning lighter again  
As shown, the score is gradually lightening. Not fully yellow yet (lightest), but this is an early risk signal‼️

Combine this with other major top signals I’ve shared:
- RUP triple divergence
- Massive Realized Profit (https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1957254031405093303…)
- Price/PSIP correlation breaking down (https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1947832793133887647…)
- BTC daily chart new high stop hunt (https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1956175277735993658…)
- Technical chart Lower High confirmation (https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1970307327363321923…)
- Short-term holder average cost breakdown (https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1971390248153416059…)  
...and more.

IMO, BTC is getting closer and closer to a major cycle top ⚠️

Quick update for everyone:
My previously disclosed “low-leverage long-term short” positions remain unchanged.  
Both entries average out to ~118K, total leverage = 1.11x:  
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1948557253726142880…

That’s it for today—hope this helps!  
Risk management first. May you all protect your hard-earned gains 🫡

NYSE's parent company invests $2 billion in Polymarket
ICE, the financial group behind the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), has just officially announced a strategic investment...

NYSE's parent company invests $2 billion in Polymarket

On October 6th, asset management giant Grayscale announced the official launch of the first spot crypto ETF products in the United States to support staking: Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH).
[1759806086554691.png]
This means that while investors maintain Ethereum exposure through traditional securities accounts, they can also automatically earn staking returns, without requiring any blockchain...

When it comes to Ethereum, big things are coming!

“It’s not too late to get into the crypto market,” Pantera fund manager asserts. As Bitcoin (BTC) has just hit a new historical peak of $126,000, Mr. Cosmo Jiang, Portfolio Manager of Pantera, said: “It’s not too late to get into the crypto market.”