1/ Peter Thiel, long before Bitcoin was even invented, spoke at an Independent Institute event in 1999 about the transition to digital currency controlled by individuals, not governments, as the currency of the future. virtual money, privacy, and the internet - 1999, Peter Thiel youtu.be/e-X8D1gOU1E?t=2229&si...… 2/ There's something called Grisham's Law. This means that in the Middle Ages, monarchs minted gold coins and collected taxes. When both minting and tax collection were handled by a single authority, the monarch could collect taxes, melt the collected gold coins, and then reduce the gold content to issue more coins. In fact, almost all monarchs throughout human history have used the same method to inflate their national currencies, and as a result, every country has collapsed economically and politically. Regardless of the gold content of a gold coin, 1 gold coin = 1 gold coin. From the monarch's perspective, printing more gold coins allows him to spend more money. As a nation expands, he needs more money, and this has always been the case. However, if this process of monarchs replicating currency continues, individuals will withdraw and store coins with higher gold content to preserve their currency value. As a result, the overall value of the currency gradually deteriorates. In other words, as long as the government controls the link between money and goods, value erosion is inevitable. - That's why Peter Thiel, speaking of "reverse" Grisham's Law, advocated for a transition to currency controlled by individuals. He argued that if the choice between different currencies is left to individuals, rather than the monarch, the currency chosen by individuals will experience less value erosion.​ In other words, if individuals control the link between "money" and the "goods" it exchanges, the currency is likely to be linked to real value and not eroded at all. In other words, Peter Thiel spoke of a currency controlled by numerous individuals, and its structure is strikingly similar to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is neither issued nor used by the government; it is a digital asset chosen by numerous individuals. 3/ What's also surprising is that he presented not only the emergence of this currency but also its process. Twenty-six years after this speech, in 2025, this process (the transition from the dollar to privately controlled currencies) is still underway, as Peter Thiel predicted. This process... First, a transition from a currency controlled by a bad government to a currency controlled by the government but not unstable... Ultimately, the centrally controlled fiat currency will disappear completely and be replaced by some kind of asset class based on real assets. And, I believed this process would take place through the mobile phone platforms used by people around the world, long before the advent of smartphones. Simply put, the global dollarization would occur first, with conversions from the Russian ruble to the dollar, the Brazilian real to the dollar, and the Turkish lira to the dollar. Afterwards, people would use those dollars as a store of value, storing/preserving that value in other highly liquid financial instruments, such as the S&P 500 index or a general stock market index. 4/ Blockchain and cryptocurrencies are designed to be exchanged with anyone, regardless of person or border. Therefore, stablecoins, inheriting the properties of cryptocurrencies, enable conversion to dollars anytime, anywhere, even in countries with political and economic instability. To illustrate this point, let's take an extreme example. If a war were to break out in Taiwan or our country, people would likely exchange their national currency for safer currency, the US dollar, to store the value of their assets. In a country or society where blockchain and stablecoin systems are well-integrated into daily life, the government will be unable to control individual behavior, making it easier for anyone to exchange for dollars. While not a war, we are already living in a world where distrust in one's own country and the conversion of the dollar and assets into US stocks are occurring as a store of value. Full Text m.blog.naver.com/ryogan/223915...…

5/ But then again, something interesting happened in 2024. The launch of the Bitcoin ETF, and the centralization of Bitcoin... It seems to have disrupted the process of inverse Gresham's Law. Moderator: What are the factors holding cryptocurrencies back from taking the next step, and are you still confident about it? Peter Thiel: I think the Bitcoin ETF has partially unlocked that. But what I'm less sure about is the ideological founding vision of Bitcoin and these cryptocurrencies: cypherpunk, crypto-anarchist, libertarian, anti-centralized government. Moderator: Isn't that what initially piqued your interest? Peter Thiel: Exactly. That's what I thought was cool. And the question is, 'Does it really work that way?' Or maybe the momentum has faded somewhere. When the FBI says criminals prefer using Bitcoin over $100 bills, that probably suggests it's not working as intended. Moderator: Have you ever sold any Bitcoin? Peter Thiel: I still have some. I didn't buy as much as I should have. I'm not sure it's going to go up that dramatically from here. Moderator: From here? Peter Thiel: Yeah, the ETF came out, and I'm not sure who's going to buy faster from here. Moderator: That's interesting investment advice. I'm actually a little surprised. I thought you were still fully invested. Peter Thiel: I still have a small position. It could probably go up more, but it's going to be a volatile and bumpy ride. I had two reasons. One was my belief in the future of ideologically decentralized computing, and I truly believed it would be better. And for a long time, it seemed like the perfect vehicle for that. But now I'm much less sure about that. Moderator: Interesting. Peter Thiel: So, either Larry Fink, who owns BlackRock ETFs, has capitulated to the anti-ESG forces, or Bitcoin has been manipulated by them. I'm worried it's the latter. x.com/DavidShares/status/18070...…