Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration for the film *The Big Short*, has once again issued a warning on social media after a two-year hiatus, seemingly pointing to the AI industry, which is now valued at over $5 trillion. He posted a still from the film on the X platform and wrote:
Sometimes we see bubbles;
Sometimes we can do something;
Sometimes, the only way to win is not to participate.
He also changed his X account name to "Cassandra Unchained," implying that he was like a prophet from Greek mythology. This move sparked discussion in the community and also reflected investors' concerns about the funding structure behind the AI boom.
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Although Burry didn't elaborate, the community widely speculates that he was hinting at a potential industry bubble created by artificial intelligence (AI). Several reports in recent months have indicated that since ChatGPT's IPO, AI-related stocks have accounted for a large proportion of S&P 500 returns, earnings growth, and capital expenditures.
For example, according to Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan Asset Management, AI-related stocks account for approximately 75% of the S&P 500's returns, about 80% of its earnings growth, and about 90% of its capital expenditure growth. Bank of England cautions that there is a risk of a "decoupling" between the market capitalization of AI-driven technology companies and their earnings growth and technological breakthroughs.
Other studies have pointed out that while many companies have invested heavily in AI infrastructure (such as data centers and GPU servers), they have not yet seen a significant surge in corresponding benefits. For example, one article suggests that AI spending will become a major source of GDP growth in the first half of 2025, but whether this represents a high return on investment or is merely conspicuous consumption remains to be seen.
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Burry used a satirical image of "Tulip Mania" by Belgian painter Jan Bruegel the Younger as an X-shaped banner, connecting the 17th-century tulip mania with today's AI craze. According to Moomoo , Burry's Scion Asset Management sold off most of its US tech stocks earlier this year, shifting to put options and making a slight move towards Chinese tech giants.
This approach of "staying away from the core and waiting for correction" is exactly the same as his strategy of shorting subprime mortgages on the eve of 2008.
Maintaining a distance between fanaticism and rationality
Michael Burry's warning serves as a stark reminder to investors that technological revolutions and financial bubbles often dance side-by-side. In this era of intertwined AI boom and capital hunger, carefully distinguishing between sustainable long-term value and fleeting market illusions may be key to avoiding a repeat of historical tragedies.
