Bitcoin has fallen below $104,000 to its lowest level in two weeks, triggering at least $1.37 billion in leveraged liquidations — about $1.2 billion of which from long positions, according to CoinGlass data — as persistent ETF outflows, long-term holder selling, and a broader risk-off mood continue to pressure the market.
It's important to note that liquidation data remains imperfect — Bybit publishes full data, but Binance and OKX still report in incomplete bursts, for example — meaning the true figure is likely higher.
BTC slid nearly 4% in 24 hours from $106,400 to an intraday low of $103,860 early Tuesday, The Block's price shows. Altcoins mirrored the move, as ETH dropped 6% to around $3,500, BNB slid 8% to below $950, and SOL fell almost 10% to $159, pushing total crypto market capitalization down to about $3.6 trillion.
"As BTC continues to trade within the top-buyer cluster, the market sits in a fragile state," Bitfinex analysts told The Block. "We are not yet in a capitulation phase, but investors are showing signs of waning conviction. Unless the price recovers decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for bulls."
The analysts added that persistent distribution from long-term holders continues to exert structural pressure, noting that major bull phases have historically resumed only once these wallets shift back into accumulation.
Tuesday's downturn follows another stretch of ETF weakness. On Nov. 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $187 million in net outflows — a fourth consecutive day of redemptions — while Ethereum ETFs shed $136 million, according to The Block's data dashboard. In contrast, Solana ETFs recorded $70 million in inflows, their fifth straight positive session, as analysts flagged a rotation toward higher-beta assets despite broader fatigue.
Fear grips crypto market as risk appetite fades
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 21, its lowest reading in weeks, signaling deep caution across investor sentiment. Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, said a mix of macro and psychological factors has kept traders defensive following the Oct. 10 crash.
"There's been a lot of fear in the market since the large liquidation that happened," he said. "Combined with the ongoing government shutdown and the focus from Crypto Twitter that price follows global liquidity, many participants have gone risk-off."
Still, Sondergaard noted bright spots beneath the surface. "The new Solana ETF is coming out quite strong, which goes somewhat against what we're otherwise seeing," he added. "What happens next will largely depend on when the government is back online, with reassuring statements that could quickly improve short-term sentiment."
Fragile structure, exhausted demand
Onchain and derivatives data point to thinning liquidity. Bitcoin options open interest remains muted near multi-week lows, while spot depth has declined across major exchanges, according to The Block's data and several analysts' notes.
Notably, sentiment has also turned bearish in prediction markets. The Polymarket contract asking whether bitcoin will dip below $100,000 before 2026 now shows a 78% probability of "Yes," suggesting traders see a higher chance of a significant correction ahead of next year.
Gabriel Selby, head of research at Kraken-owned CF Benchmarks, said the current move likely reflects technical rebalancing after earlier volatility.
"The liquidation on Oct. 10 left a lot of price inefficiencies that made another correction somewhat inevitable," he said. "With large caps retesting those October lows again today, the market could actually be better positioned for a cleaner run higher moving forward."
Even so, Bitfinex analysts warned that unless ETF inflows or new institutional buyers absorb supply, bitcoin's retest could "potentially extend toward the $100,000 region or lower" in the weeks ahead.
