Cryptology Adam Back believes Bitcoin won't face a real threat from quantum computers for at least another 20 to 40 years...
According to Cryptology Adam Back, current quantum computing systems are still too weak in both qubit count and error correction capabilities to pose a risk to cryptocurrency security algorithms.
This expert believes that Bitcoin will not face real risks from quantum computers for at least another 20 to 40 years, especially when “post-quantum” encryption standards have been approved and are ready for application.
In an exchange on social network X, when asked whether Bitcoin is at risk from quantum technology, Cryptology Adam Back said that the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has completed a set of post-quantum encryption standards, and Bitcoin can completely integrate them before quantum computers are powerful enough to interfere with the encryption.
To break the SHA-256 algorithm - the core security layer of Bitcoin - a quantum computer would need to have about 8,000 logical qubits. Meanwhile, current quantum systems have much lower qubit counts than this, especially because they are limited by the speed of noise high and lack of error correction capabilities to maintain stable qubits for code-breaking calculations.
The neutral atom system developed by Caltech currently holds the record for the number of physical qubits with 6,100 qubits, but still cannot break the RSA-2048 code, umbrella In theory, only about 4,000 logical qubits are needed. The reason is that physical qubits are completely different from logical qubits: logical qubits are the ideal, error-free form needed to run code-breaking algorithms.
While creating just one stable logical qubit requires hundreds or even thousands of physical qubits for error correction.
Cryptology Adam Back, in an interview in April, suggested that pressure from quantum computing could reveal whether Satoshi Nakamoto still exists, as the quantum threat could force the Bitcoin creator to move his coins to quantum-resistant addresses to avoid the risk of theft. Nakamoto's estimated 1 million Bitcoins would be at great risk if not transferred to new security protocols.
However, the assessment made by Cryptology Adam Back is contrary to the predictions of some experts. that The quantum threat could become a reality in the next 2–5 years.
One of the quantum threats facing the cryptocurrency market today is the “harvest now, decrypt later” attack model. Adversaries will collect encrypted data and store it until future quantum computers are powerful enough to decrypt it.
According to Coinmarketcap, smart contract researcher Gianluca Di Bella recently recommended that the transition to post-quantum encryption should begin immediately. He noted that while practical commercial quantum computing may be 10–15 years away, large corporations like Microsoft or Google could develop solutions in a few years. This is especially important for data protection, which requires long-term security, rather than the security of conventional transactional cryptocurrencies.
The blockchain’s decentralized governance model will allow for protocol upgrades as community consensus is adopted, helping the system adapt to emerging technological threats. And early integration of post-quantum cryptographic standards will ensure digital assets remain safe from future risks.
