Bitcoin ETF flows have shifted out of the strong-outflows regime and into a neutral one, but neutral flows don’t historically support sustained upside. In ETF flow data, we usually see three regimes: strong inflows, neutral flows, and strong outflows. Rallies backed by strong inflows tend to persist. Rallies without flow support rarely do. That’s why understanding these regimes matters. Right now, Bitcoin is sitting in the neutral flows regime, which neither pushes the market higher nor provides a foundation for a durable recovery.

That positioning lines up with the current macro uncertainty. After today’s FOMC meeting, we may get a clearer macro signal and flows will pick a direction once investors have more conviction. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.