As Wall Street traders close for the holidays, Bitcoin's (BTC) price trajectory for the year still flickers on screens. The surge to a nominal high of $126,000 on October 6th sent bulls into a frenzy. Now, an Excel spreadsheet from Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, pours cold water on the euphoria: in 2020 dollar purchasing power terms, the rally actually stalled at $99,848, failing to truly reach six figures.
Even after adjusting for inflation, Bitcoin has not yet entered the "100,000 club".
According to a CoinDesk report on the 23rd, Thorn used 2020 as a benchmark and, after deducting the cumulative CPI inflation rate over the past five years, calculated that the nominal high of $126,000 was only worth $99,848 in real terms. He emphasized on the X platform:
"If you believe it, it actually peaked at $99,848 in 2020."
This mere $152 difference reveals the gap between nominal price and real purchasing power. In other words, Bitcoin has made history at the nominal level, but after adjusting for inflation, it still hasn't crossed the $100,000 threshold.
A weakening dollar amplifies price signals.
Thorn's conclusion is not to question Bitcoin's long-term potential, but rather to remind investors of the depreciation of its unit of account. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the CPI in November, continuing to exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, prices of a basket of goods and services have risen by approximately 25%, and the purchasing power of the dollar has shrunk by nearly 20% in five years.
During the same period, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against major currencies, declined by 11% throughout 2025, hitting a three-year low in September and hovering around 97.8 at the end of the year. This phenomenon of a "smaller denominator" makes risk assets appear to be hitting new highs, but in reality, some of the gains are just compensating for the dollar's bleeding.
"Currency devaluation trading" fuels risk aversion
In the context of macro-finance, this type of capital flow is often referred to as "currency devaluation trading." Investors buy Bitcoin and gold not necessarily because they are optimistic about a fundamental surge, but rather to hedge against the risk of declining purchasing power of fiat currencies. The surge in Bitcoin in October 2025 is seen as a collective manifestation of this defensive mindset.
However, as market enthusiasm cooled, Bitcoin subsequently fell by about 30% from its peak, fluctuating between $87,000 and $93,000 by the end of December. Bulls interpreted this as meaning that since inflation hadn't yet broken the $100,000 mark, the bubble was limited and there was still room for further upward movement. Bears, on the other hand, argued that high inflation had eroded the anti-inflation narrative, thus diminishing real gains.
Looking back on Christmas Eve: The gap between nominal highs and real value
With the Federal Reserve facing the dual pressures of inflation and deficits, Thorn's report serves as a mirror, reminding the market to be wary of "paper wealth." Nominal profits may be dazzling, but cash flow after taking purchasing power into account is the last line of defense for measuring wealth.
By the end of 2025, the peak label of $126,000 will be a thing of the past. The real $100,000 moment is yet to come. For investors pursuing "digital gold," the battle to preserve intrinsic value has only just begun.
