When financial conditions, as measured by the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), trend looser week after week, Bitcoin’s returns tend to be biased to the upside.
The weekly effect is modest, but duration matters. Historically, easing phases last about one quarter, and over that period the median Bitcoin return is around 22%.
The NFCI has recently started trending lower again, indicating that financial conditions are easing.

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The article, titled "Funding Fees Become a Money Tree! A Trader Short$12.5 Million in Two Months Shorting Bitcoin, Earning $9.6 Million from BlockTempo Fees Alone," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential ABMedia media.

Funding fees have become a cash cow! One trader profited $12.5 million by short Bitcoin in two months, earning a staggering $9.6 million from funding fees alone.

Supportive financial conditions alone are not enough. Even during easing phases, Bitcoin still posts negative returns about 25% of the time.
That’s why it’s important to watch whether ETF flows also turn supportive. Macro tailwinds reinforced by sustained inflows are the winning formula for Bitcoin’s recovery.
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