
                                    <div>
                                      <h3>Market View</h3>
                                      <p>BTC is approaching a resistance level, watch for selling pressure</p>
                                      <h3>Trading Strategy</h3>
                                      <p>Monitor resistance level performance, operate cautiously</p>
                                      <h3>Core Logic</h3>
                                      <p><ol>
    <li>
BTC rebound is near the first resistance
    </li>
    <li>
supply quantile cost bands show potential support and resistance zones based on on-chain holding costs
    </li>
</ol></p>
                                    </div>
                                    

BTC反弹已接近第一阻力位！
BTC供应分位持仓成本带是把全链BTC的持仓成本（已实现价格）按照分位数划分，然后画出不同区间的成本水平。方便我们利用这种筹码结构分布来观察可能的支撑位或压力位。

链上数据有2个关键信号点出现：
1、筹码集中度下降
在2026.1.1 BTC现货价格5%范围内的筹码集中度达到14.9%，距离我们说的波动性高风险区仅一步之遥。但此后在1月2日和1月3日两天不增反降，目前已降至14.5%。同时，BTC的价格在缓慢上涨。
（图1）  x.com/Murphychen888/…

Murphy

Twitter

BTC is rebounding and is now approaching the first resistance level!

The BTC Supply Cost by Percentile Bands divides the realized price (on-chain cost basis) of all BTC holdings into different percentiles, mapping out distinct cost zones. This allows us to identify potential support or resistance levels based on the distribution of these on-chain positions.

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