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After a 20% drop in November, it has been oscillating between 845 and 921.
Although it broke through the daily resistance level of 945, Trump's tariffs dampened bullish sentiment. Currently, tariffs on Europe and Canada may be coming to an end. #Bitcoin #MacroAnalysis
A rate cut in January is not expected, as the market has already anticipated it. Even if Trump announces the new Fed chairman at tomorrow's meeting, it will only fulfill Powell's potentially hawkish statements. The next focus will be on whether a rate cut is possible in March.
As for Japan's interest rate, the market already anticipated this in December, so its impact is not as significant.
Regarding the government shutdown on the 31st, even if it does occur, compared to October last year, the shutdown will only be partial, and the impact will be less significant. The impact on the market will be limited.
Market sentiment remains relatively quiet, and BTC trading volume on #Coinbase is also very low. Sentiment-driven supply and demand are relatively stable.
In summary, none of the factors mentioned above are sufficient to trigger a surge in panic selling that would cause on-chain holdings to break through the 80-845 range.
Of course, given the low liquidity, a second price test is possible.
However, liquidity is currently better than last year. Furthermore, BTC is a macro-liquidity sensitive asset.
Currently, the outlook remains bullish, with the on-chain dense accumulation range of 845-921 providing some support. As long as this range holds, a rebound is possible.
However, the extent of the rebound will depend on whether there are sustained positive news events to stimulate investor sentiment.
For now, let's just wait and see.

Murphy
@Murphychen888
01-28
从资金层面来看,主流稳定币总供应量的30日净头寸由正转负。虽然稳定币的发行并非全部用于币圈,但一些边缘灰产对稳定币的需求和应用并不会受到市场情绪影响有太大的变化,因此,持续减少的部分大概率都是原本留在币圈的真实购买力。
(图1) x.com/Murphychen888/…


BTC is going to become a stablecoin! 😁
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