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If one day there's a run on gold, and investors find that their paper gold can't be exchanged for physical gold, Bitcoin will surge if this happens even once. Why? Because most people's "paper gold" purchases—whether in ETFs, futures, or bank gold accounts—have no legal obligation to be converted into physical gold. At maturity, they can settle directly with cash, without giving you physical gold. You think you're buying gold, but you're actually buying a price tracking tool. This system works because the vast majority of people don't want physical gold; they only want price exposure. They close out or roll over their positions before maturity; less than 1% actually demand delivery. But what if one day everyone really wants to exchange it for physical gold? In 2011, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, while researching COMEX, found that there were approximately $80 billion in open contracts, but only $2.7 billion in deliverable gold in warehouses. He asked the head of the settlement department, "What if 4% of people request delivery?" The reply was, "That never happens; we rarely exceed 1%." Kyle Bass pressed, "But what if it did?" The reply was, "Price will solve everything." Kyle Bass said, "Thanks, give me the gold." Then he actually helped the University of Texas endowment withdraw $1 billion in physical gold. Because he knew that rights on paper and actually having it in hand were two different things. This incident has recently resurfaced. In February 2025, Elon Musk questioned on X whether Fort Knox's gold reserves still existed. He was told that the last complete public audit was in the 1950s, and there hadn't been one since 1974. Musk said he wanted to do a live-streamed visit: "This is the American people's gold, and the American people have the right to see their own gold." Senator Rand Paul responded, "I've tried for ten years and can't get in. Come on." Even the authenticity of the US government's gold reserves is being questioned. How reliable do you think the gold behind those ETFs and futures is? As precious metals enter a supercycle, and with the world becoming increasingly chaotic, user demand for physical gold will only grow stronger. One day, someone will expose this facade. And when the world discovers that those financial products "representing gold" don't actually have sufficient gold backing, trust collapses, and there's no going back. Bitcoin has 21 million coins, verifiable on the blockchain; no one can print more out of thin air. What you hold is what you hold; there's no leverage, no paper contracts. It might take 5 years, it might take 10. But I believe we will definitely see this scenario. That will be the true supercycle for Bitcoin.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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