The delayed release of Claude 5 has caused a sharp drop in its release probability this month, with a new account betting $10,000 that the new model will be released before April. On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has bet $10.5,000 that Claude 5 will be released before March 31st, at a cost of 93 cents. Currently, the odds for this bet are 85%. Four days ago, a user posted that they found the identifier "claude-sonnet-5@20260203" in Google Vertex AI logs, which sparked speculation that Claude 5 would be released on February 3rd. Just yesterday, Claude released the update Claude Opus 4.6, which improved performance in various aspects, but did not release any information regarding the Claude 5 release. This caused the odds for a release before February 14th and 28th to plummet, with the probability of a release before February 28th dropping from 95% yesterday to 52% today. The community widely speculates that Claude 5 may be delayed until late Q1 or Q2 to refine proxy, multimodal, and security alignment. Account: 0xbb6f5414a957402a12180706f7dcc1ea551b56b7 Total Positions: $10.5k --------------------------------- See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN