逻辑应该是：
BTC先跌，然后触发了 ETF 折价扩大，进而再触发套利，最后是 ETF 流出。
而不是：
ETF流出导致 BTC 下跌。

非常开心可以和江老师讨论 $IBIT 的清算问题。
首先我们需要搞清楚几个细节。
1. Bitcoin现货ETF 交易的是ETF 而不是 $BTC
2. 贝莱德现货ETF的二级市场交易的是 $IBIT ，而且只有 IBIT
3. 现货ETF涉及到 Bitcoin x.com/jiangzhuoer2/s…

Phyrex

Twitter

The logic should be: BTC first falls, then this triggers a widening of the ETF discount, which in turn triggers arbitrage, ultimately leading to ETF outflows.

Instead of: ETF outflows causing BTC to fall.

Bitcoin's price briefly touched $60,000 last week. Under a diminishing returns model, this is no mere noise. The market is touching the weakest link in the entire four-year cycle and logarithmic growth framework.

With the gains at the top of the Bitcoin cycle already significantly compressed, a further historically deep correction would completely negate the allure of its classic cycles.

This is not a prediction; it's a mathematical law.

Cycle Top Gains are Compressing

Historical Bitcoin Cycle Tops:

· 2013: ~$1,242

· 2017: ~$19,700

· 2021: ~...

$55,000 will be the lifeline for Bitcoin.

The government has just issued Resolution No. 23/NQ-CP following the regular government meeting in January 2026, which emphasizes the requirement for proactive, flexible, and effective monetary policy management, with close coordination...

The Vietnamese government is pushing for the operation of a gold and cryptocurrency exchange by February 28, 2026.

The crypto market experienced a sharp drop this afternoon, with Ethereum falling below the $2,000 mark at 3 PM Taiwan time, according to Hyperliquid [...]
The article, titled "Machi Big Brother Suffers Huge Losses and Didn't Sleep All Night? Ethereum Falls Below 2000 Magnesium, Panic Arrives, Opens Long BlockTempo and Loses 120,000 Magnesium," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Machi Big Brother lost so much money he couldn't sleep all night? Ethereum fell below 2000, causing panic. He long positions in ETH and HYPE, then sold at a loss, losing all 120,000 in magnesium.