Takashi Takashi's landslide victory in the Japanese House of Representatives election means the ruling coalition now holds enough seats to meet the criteria for constitutional amendment. Following this, after his visit to the US on March 19th, Takashi is likely to push for concrete action, with a focus on fiscal expansion. In addition to the $300 billion AI (7% of GDP) stimulus package, a 5% increase in defense spending is expected. The national debt-to-GDP ratio is gradually shifting from 250% to around 280%. With this fiscal expansion continuing, Japanese bond yields are expected to continue rising, and a jump in the USD/JPY exchange rate is anticipated tomorrow, making imported inflation highly likely. Crucially, Takashi stated: "A weak yen has both advantages and disadvantages. We will continue to pursue a responsible and proactive fiscal policy. The goal is to build a resilient nation capable of withstanding exchange rate fluctuations." This statement warrants careful consideration. It suggests that even if the USD/JPY exchange rate breaks through 160 in the short term, there will be less frequent/aggressive intervention in the exchange rate (at least not the first option), allowing the market to determine the exchange rate level more, while using fiscal policy to buffer the negative impact. Closely monitor the USD/JPY exchange rate and Japanese long-term bond yield trends. At some point in the future, these trends will inevitably become unsustainable, and a reversal would pose a significant risk to the market.
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qinbafrank
@qinbafrank
日本众议院选举开始投票,需要关注选举结果对市场的影响。1月下旬因为美日汇率持续走高接近160的生命线,1月23号美日联手干预汇率https://x.com/qinbafrank/status/2015622853899759908?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A…当时对市场还有一个小冲击。之后1月底影响趋于缓和、本周美日汇率又开始走高从上周的152又摸到157.2的位置上。


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