The mean value of Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Loss (STH-RUL) has surpassed 5 standard deviations (purple line)—a classic sign of extreme fear! This is the first time it’s happened in the current cycle, but it’s the 11th time across the past four cycles, averaging about three occurrences per cycle. It looks like “third time’s the charm,” but logically, a true bear market bottom usually forms only after bulls completely capitulate—just when hope seems lost, the market finds new life. If once isn’t enough, it’ll happen again. BTC has already retraced 50% from its peak. It might not need another 50% drop for the next STH-RUL blowout, but one thing’s clear: before a true bear bottom is in, this probably won’t be the last time we see this signal. That’s why I believe that even though BTC is getting close to the bottom in terms of “price range,” we’re still not there yet in terms of “time.” ----------------------------------------------- For learning and discussion only. Not financial advice!