Why Prediction Markets Will Go Permissionless My Opinion The melee team published an article arguing that the gated system should be replaced with a permissionless system in prediction markets. They cited the example of pump.fun, but I believe that permissionless systems cannot completely replace gated systems. This is because prediction markets and tokens are structurally different. Tokens can exist if they can be issued, but in prediction markets, if there are ambiguous questions, disputes over data sources, or unclear settlement criteria, disputes arise and trust is lost. The reasons why Polymarket and Kalshi stick with the gated system are clear. Oracles (the issue of settlement trust), liquidity (the minimum requirement for market formation), etc. These conditions are inherent problems inherent in the prediction market structure, and regulatory risks are also difficult to avoid. Of course, permissionless systems may increase the number of markets and create a wider variety of markets, but at the same time, There's a high possibility that useless markets like pump.fun will proliferate. Increasing supply and market functioning are two different things. Prediction markets are structured so that liquidity cannot be dispersed. Collective intelligence is data, and transactions themselves become prices. Without transactions, the market itself cannot exist. A market without trust cannot generate price signals, and without price signals, prediction markets have no meaning. Who would bet on an uncertain market? This isn't to say permissionless prediction markets are impossible. It's difficult to agree with the claim that they will replace gatekeeper systems at the same pace as token markets. Permissionless prediction markets are ultimately abstract. Of course, when permissionless prediction markets become established, prediction markets will accelerate. x.com/meleemarkets/status/2020...