“At the Crossroads of RUP and RUL”: Waiting for the Golden Bottom Signal 🚦 Following up on yesterday’s post where I shared four deep bear bottoming models, today I want to highlight another powerful indicator. This time, it’s the RUPL model—a “100% historical win rate” bottom signal, just like the others, but with a unique twist: instead of a pure valuation metric, RUPL measures the market’s unrealized loss status 👇 As shown in the attached chart: 🟩 Green = RUP (Relative Unrealized Profit) 🟥 Red = RUL (Relative Unrealized Loss) 🔉 Signal = RUP < RUL Quick refresher on these metrics: ➡️ Both RUP & RUL gauge the market’s overall profit/loss state ➡️ When RUP < RUL, it means the average market participant is underwater ➡️ Historically, every time RUP < RUL has triggered, it’s marked a cyclical bottom For a deep dive into these concepts, check out my earlier guides: 📖 In-depth RUPL Indicator + Bottoming Playbook x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… 📖 Bear-Proof: Four Legendary Bottom-Fishing Tools on Standby x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Looking at the chart: The heavy dump since January sent RUL—which had been flatlining—spiking sharply, while RUP has been trending down in tandem with price. If BTC drops further and RUP crosses below RUL, triggering the “RUP < RUL” signal, that’s historically been a prime bottoming window 💎 At this point, I hope you’re seeing the pattern: 🔺 Monday: PSIP bottoming signal 🔺 Tuesday: Bottom formation breakdown 🔺 Yesterday: Four deep bear bottom models (see link below) 🔺 Today: RUPL bottoming signal I’ll compile all these threads at the end of this post for easy reference. Despite coming from almost completely different analytical angles, all four signals are converging on the same conclusion: “We may be just one last shakeout away from the ultimate bottom‼️” Except for the stricter LTH-RP (see quote below), which is still a bit off, the Realized Price, Cointime Price, PSIP, and RUPL models are all “so close, but not quite there yet.” If BTC does, as I discussed in Tuesday’s “Bottom Structure Playbook,” enter a 1–3 month wide-ranging chop, and then completes a final stop-hunt wick into the deep bear value zone, that could be the dream scenario—the golden moment to ape in with zero hesitation 📈 That’s it for today! Hope this helps. I know this week’s content dump was a lot, but I wanted to lay out my full view and reasoning after this big dump. Appreciate your patience 🙏 With the weekend and Lunar New Year coming up, wishing everyone a great holiday and an amazing year ahead! 🎉 // 📚 Further Reading: BTC Back to Blue-Line Support for First Time Since 2022 x.com/market_beggar/status/202...… Massive Extremes: The Start of a New Volatility Game x.com/market_beggar/status/202...… “The Golden Pit Within Reach”: PSIP Cyclical Bottom Signal Close at Hand x.com/market_beggar/status/202...…