A post by the head of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) caused the probability of a government shutdown to plummet from 96% to 19%. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. government shutting down on Saturday (February 14th) has dropped sharply from a high of 96% to 21% in the past two hours. The core reason for this drop is a reply from Scott Kupor, head of the OPM, at 12:01 PM stating, "Ha! I don't want to be on the wrong side of the betting odds... It only involves the partial loss of funding to the Department of Homeland Security, and we will not change the OPM website to a government shutdown status." Since Polymarket's rules for settling government shutdown status are based on OPM status updates, Kupor's reply led the market to believe that the betting odds were about to close, causing the probability to plummet. --------------------------------- See the future earlier, follow @PolyBeats_Bot See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN