The BTC Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) assesses the relative balance changes across different wallet groups, assigning higher weight to larger entities, providing a useful reference for measuring on-chain "accumulation behavior." The closer the ATS is to 1 (black dot), the more likely large entities are to accumulate. Since February 5th, the ATS score has consistently remained below 0.5, indicating a lack of active accumulation behavior among holders. (Figure 1 - BTC Accumulation Trend Score) Especially during the rebound from March 1st to 4th, the ATS score dropped to 0.23 (light yellow dot), suggesting that some large holders began distributing during the BTC price rebound. Furthermore, we see that on January 14th, short-term holders transferred a total of 20,477 BTC to exchanges to lock in profits (more than on January 14th, 2026), reflecting STH's lack of confidence in the current market conditions. (Figure 2 - BTC transferred from STH to exchanges) Conversely, traditional capital, represented by "spot ETFs," played a crucial role at this time. The continuous net inflows from February 24th to March 4th absorbed some of the supply, creating conditions for a rebound (we will provide a detailed analysis of ETFs tomorrow). This indicates a strong divergence of opinion in the market; some are bearish and want to sell, while others are bullish and want to buy. The battle between bulls and bears is bound to determine a winner again. For us retail investors, we can only observe and wait for the situation to become clearer before making further plans.
This article is machine translated
Show original

Murphy
@Murphychen888
MVRV极端偏差:熊市反弹的概率边界
在熊市日线级别的反弹除了参考BRS信号之外,我还会格外关注“MVRV极限偏差定价区间” —— 同样也是一个在历史样本中表现出较高有效性的参考指标。 x.com/Murphychen888/…





Sector:
From Twitter
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
Like
Add to Favorites
Comments
Share
Relevant content






