QCP: Bitcoin will likely fluctuate around $74,000; the Fed's decision will be the focus tonight.

According to ME News, on March 18th (UTC+8), QCP Capital posted on its official channel that Bitcoin is hovering around $74,000, holding above the consolidation range formed after the initial surge, but lacking upward momentum and struggling to break through recent highs. On-chain fund flows show buying activity at the lower end of the range, but spot trading volume remains thin. The entire crypto market continues to face pressure, but losses are relatively manageable compared to the pullbacks of other macro-sensitive risk assets. The options market is stable but defensive. 30-day implied volatility remains stable around 50%, still higher than realized volatility, maintaining a positive carry and favoring sellers. Risk reversal indicators show that put options are still more expensive than call options, with a negative front-end skew and residual geopolitical premiums embedded in the far-end curve. This week is a super week for central banks, with the Federal Reserve concluding its March meeting on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BOJ, and BOE on Thursday. Oil prices climbing to around $100 have complicated the path of interest rate cuts, and the market has significantly reduced its expectations for further easing. For the crypto market, the interest rate backdrop is becoming less supportive. In the current environment, Bitcoin is no longer purely a high-beta risk asset to trade. In the short term, the market is likely to remain range-bound until the policy path or geopolitical situation becomes clearer. (Source: ME)