One reason the MOVE is subdued is that bonds face two opposing forces.
Higher oil prices (Iran war) → inflation risk ↑ → yields ↑
But higher oil also → demand destruction → growth ↓ → unemployment ↑ (potentially) → yields ↓
With inflation and growth impulses offsetting each other, rates currently lack a clear direction which is keeping volatility in check.

The MOVE Index is another sign that the Iran war has had little impact on financial markets.
What the VIX is for stocks, the MOVE is for US Treasuries.
Most of the spike since the war is already gone.
Even with information spreading instantly, markets still react slowly.  x.com/KarelMercx/sta…

Karel Mercx

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