Note: The original text comes from a Twitter threads posted by @cheng_shutong.
1. The current market value of BTC ecosystem is No. 1 sats No. 2 ordi, with a total market value of nearly 2.5 billion. This is not and should not be the ceiling of protocols/projects in the track. The anchoring effect is the least laborious but not the first. In the future, there will be a number of protocols with heads of more than 1 billion; currently funds have spread to the end of each public chain, that is, the meme assets at the tail, such as avalanche's avav, and funds are expanding to "value coins"
2. The overall development of value coins has been clear. To judge whether it is the leader, the criteria are more "soft indicators", background, founder pattern, etc. Looking for data in the "narrative" stage of value coins is to seek fish from the wood; one has a pattern. The project side of the project is afraid that it will not just settle in one corner. The track of the greatest common denominator of encryption has been explored by Ethereum. These possible directions can be combined organically; for example, what they do is "big and comprehensive", Benny The TTP (trac core + tap + pipe) protocol ≥ asset issuance + decentralized index + oracle + DeFi, BRC-420 protocol (typical asset blue box) ≥ asset issuance + L2 + metaverse, BRC- invested by domo foundation 100 protocol ≥ asset issuance + DeFi + EVM compatible with L2, etc.; the large-scale outbreak of "small but refined" may need to wait until the security of the basic protocol is verified and the user base is verified. At the current stage, funds are more willing to buy "big and comprehensive"
3. The amount of locked positions in DeFi within the ecosystem will continue to rise. The most certain thing is to find the underlying assets. There are tens of thousands of protocols, and assets with strong liquidity and high consensus are always scarce; the names of the top protocols such as ordi, Pipes, atoms, etc., and meme sats on top exchanges, etc., can all be regarded as the existence of ETH in the Ethereum ecosystem, but the "ETHs" in the Bitcoin ecosystem will be more dispersed; refer to the second article, patterned DeFi The project team will not only focus on expanding a certain protocol. For example, unisat already supports multiple protocols, and its L2 will also support multiple protocols in the future; the underlying assets are the basic use cases of DeFi, and they will rise with the tide.
4. If you simply look at the absolute value of Bitcoin’s ecological multiple, it will probably scare off a lot of people. People are accustomed to the high asset pricing model, and the sources of profits come more from the ceiling (value upper limit) and current fundamentals ( (lower limit of value), price, and the relative difference between the three; in addition, absolute value and relative value are suitable for tracks with different congestion levels, the Red Ocean - absolute value, the blue ocean - relative value; the current Bitcoin ecology, time There is still at least 1-2 quarters of blue ocean stage, and the market value of the space will still have at least an order of magnitude of rapid growth.
5. Funds are a cycle. They started from memes and currently flow into value coins. When the bubble of value coins is sufficient, some concepts will face doubts, falsifications and challenges, and funds will go to memes again; after the craze of listing, the flow of ordi Sexuality no longer has a significant advantage, and the capture of memes may need to focus more on the attributes of the underlying assets + multi-dimensional narrative structures, such as sats, etc.
