Although some firms may be forced to sell their Bitcoin if markets cool, others could be acquired by asset managers hunting for deals.

<a href="https://decrypt.co/300469/publicly-traded-distiller-launching-bitcoin-reserve" rel="nofollow">Distillers</a>, <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/12/16/2997381/0/en/LEEF-Brands-to-Become-One-of-the-First-Publicly-Traded-Cannabis-Company-to-Integrate-Bitcoin-into-its-Treasury-Reserve-via-US-5-Million-Bitcoin-Backed-Debenture-Offering.html" rel="nofollow">cannabis producers</a>, and <a href="https://decrypt.co/305666/publicly-traded-firm-kulr-adds-bitcoin" rel="nofollow">energy storage firms</a> are among a wave of publicly traded companies loading their balance sheets with <a href="https://decrypt.co/resources/what-is-bitcoin-four-minute-instant-guide-explainer" rel="nofollow">Bitcoin</a>, but observers say that the strategy carries great risk if the asset’s price falls to certain levels or their ability to raise cash becomes constrained. They might then be forced to sell their holdings, potentially at a discount, or even the firm itself. “There might be an opportunity for highly credit-worthy operating companies to go and consolidate this industry and go buy Bitcoin for 90 cents on the dollar if they’re distressed,” Ben Werkman, chief investment officer at financial services firm Swan Bitcoin, told Decrypt. “If you’re looking at a prolonged bear market, that could be a real possibility.”Experts’ wariness comes as a fast-growing number of companies build treasuries based on Bitcoin and other digital assets, an approach popularized by Strategy, formerly <a href="https://decrypt.co/resources/what-is-microstrategy-mstr-the-bitcoin-treasury-company" rel="nofollow">MicroStrategy</a>, to great success. But the possible downside has been largely overlooked as Bitcoin has soared, alongside the share price of some newly Bitcoin-focused firms.Earlier this month, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at U.K.-based bank Standard Chartered, <a href="https://decrypt.co/323489/why-a-bitcoin-treasury-strategy-is-risky-analyst" rel="nofollow">wrote</a> in a note that “Bitcoin treasuries are adding to Bitcoin buying pressure for now, but we see a risk that this may reverse over time.”The number of companies trying to follow Strategy’s path, leveraging debt as a way to buy more Bitcoin than they otherwise could, has mushroomed under the more crypto-friendly policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. Strategy began purchasing Bitcoin in 2020, and over the course of several years, it has issued convertible bonds, common stock, and preferred shares to fund acquisitions—a playbook that several nascent firms are trying to emulate.Strategy, which has seen its share price skyrocket over 2,500% since it started pivoting away from software development, owns roughly 582,000 Bitcoin worth just over $61 billion, accounting for 2.7% of the asset’s total possible supply.Among 130 public companies, no other owns more than 0.25% of the 21 million Bitcoin that advocates say will ever be mined, according to <a href="https://bitcointreasuries.net/" rel="nofollow">Bitcoin Treasures</a>. At the beginning of this year, only 75 public companies held Bitcoin, an <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20250102190929/https://bitcointreasuries.net/" rel="nofollow">archived version</a> of the website shows.“If Bitcoin treasury companies are blowing up, it might be 50 cents [on the dollar],” Matt Cole, CEO of Strive Asset Management, a firm co-founded by former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, told Decrypt. “I think that there’s a good chance that there will be a risk in the future. It’s just something to watch.”Today, Cole sees the risk of Bitcoin liquidations from Bitcoin treasury firms collapsing as low, describing its potential to disrupt markets as no more impactful than the “average derivatives blowup on a random weekend.”Depending on market conditions, Cole said that Strive, which manages over $2 billion in assets, could start to see actionable opportunities in the future.“I’m not sitting here saying today [saying], ‘We need to be prepared to acquire 10 different Bitcoin treasury companies,’” he said. “There’s a good likelihood that that could be a view that we have in the future. And when it is, we’ll prepare for it.”In a <a href="https://decrypt.co/324934/attack-clones-coinbase-risks-bitcoin-treasury-model" rel="nofollow">report</a> published Thursday, Coinbase's Global Head of Research David Duong wrote that "forced selling pressure is not a concern in the very short-term," and refinancing methods may ultimately help leveraged firms avoid liquidating their Bitcoin holdings.Most public companies seek to maximize shareholder value by growing revenue, increasing operating margin, or honing capital efficiency. Many firms engaged in a Bitcoin treasury strategy, however, aim to maximize shareholder value by growing the Bitcoin they own per share. (Shareholders do not have a direct claim on the Bitcoin held in these firms’ treasuries.)Using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, Strategy has historically leaned on convertible bonds, with $8.2 billion worth of debt <a href="https://www.strategy.com/debt" rel="nofollow">outstanding</a> that could one day be converted into shares. Although demand for Strategy’s instruments has grown dramatically, smaller companies adopting Bitcoin may need a significant period of time to get to that point, Werkman said. For a company’s convertible bonds to become popular among convertible arbitrage desks, which have gravitated towards trading Strategy’s debt, Werkman said that a firm needs robust options markets first, which can be contingent on factors like an equity’s trading volume.“In the convertible bond markets, you have to build scale to do that at meaningful size, and you need to have a derivatives market first so that the people buying the bonds can hedge against it,” he said. “Not all companies have an options market right out of the gate.”As an alternative method of levering up their balance sheets, Werkman said some firms are using bank term loans, which under certain provisions, could turn them into forced sellers.“If they go and take bank debt, they’ve taken their destiny out of their own hands,” he said. “That's when you need to start getting nervous about some of these companies.”As far as assessing Bitcoin treasury companies goes, mNAV, or multiple-to-net asset value, has become an informal yet popular standard. As of Friday's close, Strategy’s mNAV was 1.7, indicating that its $107 billion market cap was above the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Still, analysts, including Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at Bitcoin financial services firm NYDIG, have argued that the valuation metric is lackluster as a comprehensive gauge.“Metrics like ‘mNAV,’ the market cap to Bitcoin holdings, are woefully deficient in comparing Bitcoin treasury companies across the spectrum accounting for [operating company] and capital structure differences,” he <a href="https://www.nydig.com/research/move-over-mnav-heres-something-better" rel="nofollow">wrote</a> in a recent note. When a company trades at a premium relative to its Bitcoin holdings, growing its Bitcoin per share by issuing common stock is easy, Werkman said. But if that premium flips to a discount, a company’s prospects could shift reflexively, he warned.“Your ability to raise capital and the credit-worthiness of your business during a bear market where Bitcoin is not continually going up is greatly impaired,” he said. “If you can’t raise capital during that time period, investors are going to see that you don’t have an ability to operate.”Werkman said a fledgling Bitcoin treasury firm’s operating company, or the value of the underlying business, “matters a lot” in the early days.Not all companies buying Bitcoin are trying to replicate Strategy’s playbook, Werkman noted. Mirroring the logic behind some <a href="https://decrypt.co/322782/why-bitcoin-friendly-lawmaker-carries-us-debt-clock-his-pocket" rel="nofollow">state-level Bitcoin bills</a>, some firms are electing to swap cash and U.S. Treasuries for Bitcoin to preserve their purchasing power, he added.At the end of the day, Werkman said that Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury strategy revolves around volatility. As the price of Strategy’s common stock swings, the company is able to raise capital at a premium, through products like convertible bonds, collecting money at a future value.“They’ve captured an arbitrage there, and that arbitrage is what increases the Bitcoin per share for the common stockholders,” Werkman said. “They’re using the capital markets and the incentive structure of all these different pools of investors in capital to build lasting value.” As more Bitcoin treasury companies pop up, Werkman posited that investors will start to segment them into “growth” plays and “value” plays, depending on how fast their Bitcoin per share is expected to grow. Although smaller players may ultimately be acquired, their endgame, he said, will likely evolve alongside Bitcoin as an asset class.“That’s a part of the magic right now,” he said. “They’re opting out of the collapsing financial system, and they’re moving to what they think the future financial system is, and there’s a first-mover advantage to being there.”Edited by James Rubin

Why Are So Many Public Companies Pivoting to Crypto, And What Happens If Bitcoin Crashes?

일부 기업들은 시장이 냉각되면 자신들의 비트(Bit)를 매각해야 할 수 있지만, 다른 기업들은 거래를 찾는 자산 관리자들에 의해 인수될 수 있습니다.

<a href="https://decrypt.co/300469/publicly-traded-distiller-launching-bitcoin-reserve" rel="nofollow">증류주 제조업체</a>, <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/12/16/2997381/0/en/LEEF-Brands-to-Become-One-of-the-First-Publicly-Traded-Cannabis-Company-to-Integrate-Bitcoin-into-its-Treasury-Reserve-via-US-5-Million-Bitcoin-Backed-Debenture-Offering.html" rel="nofollow">대마초 생산업체</a>, 그리고 <a href="https://decrypt.co/305666/publicly-traded-firm-kulr-adds-bitcoin" rel="nofollow">에너지 저장 기업</a>들이 상장 기업들 중 자사의 대차대조표에 <a href="https://decrypt.co/resources/what-is-bitcoin-four-minute-instant-guide-explainer" rel="nofollow">비트코인</a>을 쌓고 있는 물결의 일부이지만, 관찰자들은 이 전략이 자산 가격이 특정 수준으로 떨어지거나 현금 조달 능력이 제한될 경우 큰 위험을 수반한다고 말합니다.그들은 결국 보유 자산을 매각해야 할 수 있으며, 잠재적으로 할인된 가격에 매도하거나 심지어 기업 자체를 매각해야 할 수 있습니다."높은 신용도를 가진 운영 기업들이 이 산업을 통합하고 어려움에 처한 기업의 비트코인을 90센트에 매수할 기회가 있을 수 있습니다," 금융 서비스 기업 스완 비트코인의 최고투자책임자 벤 워크먼이 디크립트에 말했습니다. "장기 약세장을 보고 있다면, 이는 실제로 가능성이 있는 시나리오입니다."

(이하 생략, 전체 번역은 동일한 방식으로 진행됩니다)

왜 이렇게 많은 상장기업이 암호화폐로 전환하고 있나요? 비트코인이 폭락하면 어떻게 될까요?

이번 인터뷰는 비트코인과 초기 채굴, 암호화폐 수탁, 스테이블코인, 혁신적인 투자 모델, 그리고 "자체 구축 vs. 인수"와 같은 핵심 주제에 초점을 맞췄습니다.
기사 작성: 빌리빌리 뉴스
기사 출처: TechFlow
링크: https://www.techflowpost.com/article/detail_29488.html
면책 조항: 이 글은 재인쇄본입니다. 독자는 원문 링크를 통해 더 자세한 정보를 얻을 수 있습니다. 저자가 재인쇄 형식에 이의가 있는 경우 당사에 연락 주시면 저자의 요청에 따라 수정하겠습니다. 재인쇄는 다음과 같은 목적으로 허용됩니다...

피델리티 CEO의 10년: 암호화폐 관련 주요 결정은 무엇이었을까?

펀드스트랫의 암호화폐 전략 담당 이사인 션 패럴은 회사 내 자신의 시장 견해가 톰 리의 견해와 일치하지 않는다는 비판에 대해 서면 성명을 통해 반박했습니다.
패럴은 펀드스트랫이...

톰 리는 비트코인에 대해 낙관적인 전망을 내놓았지만, 그의 소속사 펀드스트랫은 비관적인 입장을 밝혔다. 펀드스트랫은 이에 대한 해명을 발표했다.

ME 뉴스에 따르면, 12월 21일(UTC+8)에 산티먼트(Santiment)는 소셜 미디어 정서 분석한 결과 암호화폐 시장이 아직 바닥을 확정할 만큼 충분한 공황 상태를 보이지 않았다고 밝혔습니다. 산티먼트 설립자 막심 발라셰비치(Maksim Balashevich)는 현재 온라인상에서 단기적인 하락세 반전에 대한 낙관론이 확산되고 있지만, 이러한 개인 투자자 투자자들의 정서 진정한 시장 바닥을 나타내는 경우는 드물다고 지적했습니다. 막심 발라셰비치의 분석에 따르면, 비트코인 ​​가격은 추가 하락할 가능성이 있습니다.