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qinbafrank
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Investor in Crypto、TMT、AI ，跟踪最前沿科技趋势、野生宏观政经观察、研究全球资本流动性、周期趋势投资。记录个人学习和思考，经常出错常态掉坑爬坑。Runner🏃
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qinbafrank
Takashi Takashi's landslide victory in the Japanese House of Representatives election means the ruling coalition now holds enough seats to meet the criteria for constitutional amendment. Following this, after his visit to the US on March 19th, Takashi is likely to push for concrete action, with a focus on fiscal expansion. In addition to the $300 billion AI (7% of GDP) stimulus package, a 5% increase in defense spending is expected. The national debt-to-GDP ratio is gradually shifting from 250% to around 280%. With this fiscal expansion continuing, Japanese bond yields are expected to continue rising, and a jump in the USD/JPY exchange rate is anticipated tomorrow, making imported inflation highly likely. Crucially, Takashi stated: "A weak yen has both advantages and disadvantages. We will continue to pursue a responsible and proactive fiscal policy. The goal is to build a resilient nation capable of withstanding exchange rate fluctuations." This statement warrants careful consideration. It suggests that even if the USD/JPY exchange rate breaks through 160 in the short term, there will be less frequent/aggressive intervention in the exchange rate (at least not the first option), allowing the market to determine the exchange rate level more, while using fiscal policy to buffer the negative impact. Closely monitor the USD/JPY exchange rate and Japanese long-term bond yield trends. At some point in the future, these trends will inevitably become unsustainable, and a reversal would pose a significant risk to the market. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...
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What happens when data center construction is halted? New York legislators have introduced a bill to suspend the construction and operation permits for new data centers for at least three years. New York is at least the sixth state to consider suspending new data center construction. Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, and other states are pushing for legislation to eliminate tax incentives or prohibit the signing of non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) that conceal details from the public; while in Georgia, Oklahoma, and Vermont, legislators are even proposing, as Sanders suggested, a direct halt to new projects. Most importantly, Virginia, Georgia, and New York account for more than 30% of U.S. data, with Virginia, in particular, home to the world's largest cluster of data centers. Most of these proposals are expected to be introduced during the 2026 legislative session (most states begin in January), aiming to address the energy, power grid, electricity costs, and environmental pressures brought by AI data centers. Currently, no state has implemented a state-level halt, but there are several local-level (county/city) halts. Virginia and New York have garnered the most attention due to the large scale of their data centers, but Virginia's HB1515 legislation has been delayed, and New York's S.9144 is just beginning. Bipartisan support exists (Democrats lead NY/VA/GA/VT, Republicans lead MD/OK), but industry resistance is significant, and the future is uncertain. Many states prefer tax reform, rate adjustments, or environmental reviews to a strict halt. This also illustrates that data center construction is increasingly becoming a pressing public concern in various US states: power shortages, noise pollution, and cooling water demand are also real physical bottlenecks and constraints facing AI development. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...
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How to assess stock valuation? Many have seen the previously discussed framework for judging US stock market corrections based on "valuation killing, earnings killing, and logic killing." Frankly, judging whether a valuation is high or low is one of the most crucial aspects of US stock investing; it's both a technique and an art. It's a technique because there's financial data to calculate static PE, rolling PE, dynamic PE, and forward PE, as well as historical longitudinal and industry-wide valuation comparisons. It's an art because even with all the data discussed above and numerous comparisons, can one accurately determine whether a stock is currently overvalued or undervalued, and by how much? Furthermore, low valuation doesn't equate to safety, and high valuation isn't always a bubble. This judgment requires a significant artistic element. The article "The Core Logic of Valuation: The True Meaning of Expensive and Cheap" in the Maitong Beginner Education section provides an excellent analysis: Essentially, valuation is "the market's expected pricing of a company's future value," and its rationality depends on three core variables: The quality of the business model; The certainty and sustainability of growth; Macroeconomic cycles and industry trends. Without these three variables, valuation metrics alone are meaningless. A company's business model determines its quality, and a company's quality determines its valuation tolerance. This implies that a high-quality business model can support a higher valuation, while a low-quality business model, even with a low valuation, may be a trap. Companies with high-quality business models characterized by "rigid demand, strong barriers to entry, and sustainable profitability" are given a higher valuation premium by the market. The core reason is their strong growth certainty, strong risk resistance, and ability to achieve stable growth through economic cycles. To judge whether the valuation of such companies is reasonable, the key is to look at the "match between valuation and growth," "profit quality," and "stability of the competitive advantage." The core of US stock valuation can be summarized in three sentences: 1) Choose the right valuation metrics to match the industry and business model; 2) Dynamically calibrate valuations, combining macroeconomic cycles and industry trends; 3) See through the superficial valuation and focus on profit quality and growth certainty. This is how the core investment chain is built from "macroeconomic direction → business model quality → valuation price." This analysis (original article | _2024111120230_) is worth mentioning; the beginner's education section on MaiTong@MSX_CN is highly recommended for anyone interested in investing in US stocks. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...
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