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qinbafrank
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Investor in Crypto、TMT、AI ,跟踪最前沿科技趋势、野生宏观政经观察、研究全球资本流动性、周期趋势投资。记录个人学习和思考,经常出错常态掉坑爬坑。Runner🏃
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Takashi Takashi's landslide victory in the Japanese House of Representatives election means the ruling coalition now holds enough seats to meet the criteria for constitutional amendment. Following this, after his visit to the US on March 19th, Takashi is likely to push for concrete action, with a focus on fiscal expansion. In addition to the $300 billion AI (7% of GDP) stimulus package, a 5% increase in defense spending is expected. The national debt-to-GDP ratio is gradually shifting from 250% to around 280%. With this fiscal expansion continuing, Japanese bond yields are expected to continue rising, and a jump in the USD/JPY exchange rate is anticipated tomorrow, making imported inflation highly likely. Crucially, Takashi stated: "A weak yen has both advantages and disadvantages. We will continue to pursue a responsible and proactive fiscal policy. The goal is to build a resilient nation capable of withstanding exchange rate fluctuations." This statement warrants careful consideration. It suggests that even if the USD/JPY exchange rate breaks through 160 in the short term, there will be less frequent/aggressive intervention in the exchange rate (at least not the first option), allowing the market to determine the exchange rate level more, while using fiscal policy to buffer the negative impact. Closely monitor the USD/JPY exchange rate and Japanese long-term bond yield trends. At some point in the future, these trends will inevitably become unsustainable, and a reversal would pose a significant risk to the market. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...
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What happens when data center construction is halted? New York legislators have introduced a bill to suspend the construction and operation permits for new data centers for at least three years. New York is at least the sixth state to consider suspending new data center construction. Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, and other states are pushing for legislation to eliminate tax incentives or prohibit the signing of non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) that conceal details from the public; while in Georgia, Oklahoma, and Vermont, legislators are even proposing, as Sanders suggested, a direct halt to new projects. Most importantly, Virginia, Georgia, and New York account for more than 30% of U.S. data, with Virginia, in particular, home to the world's largest cluster of data centers. Most of these proposals are expected to be introduced during the 2026 legislative session (most states begin in January), aiming to address the energy, power grid, electricity costs, and environmental pressures brought by AI data centers. Currently, no state has implemented a state-level halt, but there are several local-level (county/city) halts. Virginia and New York have garnered the most attention due to the large scale of their data centers, but Virginia's HB1515 legislation has been delayed, and New York's S.9144 is just beginning. Bipartisan support exists (Democrats lead NY/VA/GA/VT, Republicans lead MD/OK), but industry resistance is significant, and the future is uncertain. Many states prefer tax reform, rate adjustments, or environmental reviews to a strict halt. This also illustrates that data center construction is increasingly becoming a pressing public concern in various US states: power shortages, noise pollution, and cooling water demand are also real physical bottlenecks and constraints facing AI development. twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...
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