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Benson Sun
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Signal Clone Analysis
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Benson Sun
This bear market is behaving in a completely different way than before. Bitcoin has fallen 50% from its high, but the S&P 500 has only retreated less than 3% from its all-time high. How unusual is this? Let's take a look back at history. December 2018: Bear Market Bottom BTC retreated 84% from its high, while the S&P 500 retreated 20% from its high, just hitting the threshold of a bear market. The panic selling on Christmas Eve was the most panicked moment since 2009. November 2022 Bear Market Bottom BTC has retreated 78% from its high. At that time, the S&P 500 retreated 25% from its high, marking its worst year since 2008. Have you noticed the pattern? In the two previous Bitcoin bear markets, the S&P 500 had already fallen by 20-25%, reaching a relatively low point in the long term. But this time, Bitcoin has already halved in value, while the S&P 500 has only retraced 3% from its recent high. This level of deviation has never occurred before in history. If you look closely at Bitcoin's chart, you'll notice something very strange. Since October of last year, Bitcoin seems to have lost its magic. When US stocks rise, BTC doesn't follow. When US stocks dip slightly, BTC plummets. So what exactly happened in October? Looking back, there were two major events. First: The 1011 Incident On October 10th, Trump announced a 100% tariff on China. The cryptocurrency market saw a $19 billion liquidation overnight, with 1.6 million accounts liquidated. BTC plummeted from $120,000 to $100,000. This was the largest single-day liquidation in cryptocurrency history. Second: In the "Double Zhi Case," Chen Zhi and Qian Zhimin were arrested almost simultaneously. The US government confiscated 127,271 BTC from Chen Zhi. The British government seized 61,000 BTC from Qian Zhimin. In total, nearly 190,000 Bitcoins were deposited into government cold wallets. What does 190,000 units mean? In July 2024, the German government sold 50,000 BTC, which drove the price of BTC down from 70,000 to 50,000 within three weeks. The total amount involved in this Shuangzhi case is nearly four times that of Germany. Given the precedent of Germany's cryptocurrency sell-off, the potential selling pressure of these 190,000 BTC is a ticking time bomb hanging over the market. The Huione exchange behind Chen Zhi was crucial to the liquidity of the entire crypto market. When this empire was taken down, it was equivalent to a huge liquidity provider in the altcoin market suddenly disappearing. The fact that Memecoin's total market capitalization halved from $80 billion to $47 billion after 10/11, and has not recovered to this day, is a microcosm of this event. Over the past few months, we have generally heard the following sentiment: Bitcoin's market capitalization is already very large, and with the existence of ETFs, volatility will be relatively small, so the pullback in the bear market should not be as severe as in the past. But now it seems that the impact of 1011 and the Shuangzhi case may be greater than we imagined. So, back to the original question: Has it bottomed out? Is it time to buy the dips? I don't know. But I do know one thing. If history has any reference value, the bottom for Bitcoin usually doesn't appear until the US stock market also acknowledges its mistake. Right now, the US stock market is still in the party. The music hasn't stopped yet.
BTC
10.56%
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Benson Sun
This bear market is behaving in a completely different way than before. Bitcoin has fallen 50% from its high, but the S&P 500 has only retreated less than 3% from its all-time high. How unusual is this? Let's take a look back at history. December 2018: Bear Market Bottom BTC retreated 84% from its high, while the S&P 500 retreated 20% from its high, just hitting the threshold of a bear market. The panic selling on Christmas Eve was the most panicked moment since 2009. November 2022 Bear Market Bottom BTC has retreated 78% from its high. At that time, the S&P 500 retreated 25% from its high, marking its worst year since 2008. Have you noticed the pattern? In the two previous Bitcoin bear markets, the S&P 500 had already fallen by 20-25%, reaching a relatively low point in the long term. But this time, Bitcoin has already halved in value, while the S&P 500 has only retraced 3% from its recent high. This level of deviation has never occurred before in history. If you look closely at Bitcoin's chart, you'll notice something very strange. Since October of last year, Bitcoin seems to have lost its magic. When US stocks rise, BTC doesn't follow. When US stocks dip slightly, BTC plummets. So what exactly happened in October? Looking back, there were two major events. First: The 1011 Incident On October 10th, Trump announced a 100% tariff on China. The cryptocurrency market saw a $19 billion liquidation overnight, with 1.6 million accounts liquidated. BTC plummeted from $120,000 to $100,000. This was the largest single-day liquidation in cryptocurrency history. Second: In the "Double Zhi Case," Chen Zhi and Qian Zhimin were arrested almost simultaneously. The US government confiscated 127,271 BTC from Chen Zhi. The British government seized 61,000 BTC from Qian Zhimin. In total, nearly 190,000 Bitcoins were deposited into government cold wallets. What does 190,000 units mean? In July 2024, the German government sold 50,000 BTC, which drove the price of BTC down from 70,000 to 50,000 within three weeks. The total amount involved in this Shuangzhi case is nearly four times that of Germany. Given the precedent of Germany's cryptocurrency sell-off, the potential selling pressure of these 190,000 BTC is a ticking time bomb hanging over the market. The Huione exchange behind Chen Zhi was crucial to the liquidity of the entire crypto market. When this empire was taken down, it was equivalent to a huge liquidity provider in the altcoin market suddenly disappearing. The fact that Memecoin's total market capitalization halved from $80 billion to $47 billion after 10/11, and has not recovered to this day, is a microcosm of this event. Over the past few months, we have generally heard the following sentiment: Bitcoin's market capitalization is already very large, and with the existence of ETFs, volatility will be relatively small, so the pullback in the bear market should not be as severe as in the past. But now it seems that the impact of 1011 and the Shuangzhi case may be greater than we imagined. So, back to the original question: Has it bottomed out? Is it time to buy the dips? I don't know. But I do know one thing. If history has any reference value, the bottom for Bitcoin usually doesn't appear until the US stock market also acknowledges its mistake. Right now, the US stock market is still in the party. The music hasn't stopped yet.
BTC
10.56%
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Benson Sun
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This morning's BTC drop, calculated over a 200-day retracement period, reached -5.65σ. You might ask: what exactly does 5.65 standard deviations mean? Let's start with something you might have heard of: Six Sigma. This is the highest quality control standard in global manufacturing. Companies like Toyota, Intel, and Samsung have spent decades striving to achieve a quality control level of six standard deviations. In industry, six standard deviations means allowing only 3.4 defects per million iterations. In other words, this is the definition of "almost impossible" by human industrial civilization. Yesterday's BTC volatility was only 0.35 standard deviations away from this "industrially impossible" scenario. Using a normal distribution, the probability of a -5.65σ event occurring is approximately one in a billion. Of course, financial markets don't perfectly conform to a normal distribution; the fat-tail effect makes extreme events more frequent than theoretically possible. Even considering this, since BTC trading began (July 14, 2010), this level of volatility has only occurred four times, accounting for a mere 0.07% of all trading days. If you were watching the market this morning, congratulations. You witnessed an event that is statistically "almost nonexistent." Even the deep bear markets of 2018 and 2022 didn't see such a rapid decline over a 200-day rolling period. This is a fatal test for all quantitative strategies. Because the essence of quantitative trading is to build price prediction models based on historical data. BTC's history of truly active trading volume and sufficient data for modeling only began around 2015. The vast majority of quantitative models on the market are based on data from this period. No one can predict what hasn't happened. A drop exceeding 5.65 standard deviations, excluding this instance, has only occurred three times in history. One of those was the flash crash on March 12, 2020, which was considered an outlier. The remaining two instances occurred before 2015, in the prehistoric era before quantitative models could even model them. In other words, after Bitcoin became a trillion-dollar asset, this level of volatility is virtually unprecedented. CoinKarma's quantitative strategy is no exception; this time, there's a significant floating loss on paper. But we're still alive because our leverage has always been kept very low, only 1.4x, with a drawdown of 30%. Every extreme market condition is tuition. But you have to survive to be eligible to pay that tuition. This absolute outlier market condition, with its contract data and on-chain data, provides the best nourishment for future risk control models. Only by surviving can you evolve. twitter.com/BensonTWN/status/2...
BTC
10.56%
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Benson Sun
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Many crypto evangelists find the industry's "casino-like" trend disappointing. I, on the contrary, think it's a good thing. Humanity's most basic needs are "pornography, gambling, and drugs," and this hasn't changed in thousands of years. Pornhub receives over 4 billion visits per month, consistently ranking among the top 15 websites globally. This isn't decadence; it's human nature. Why are young people increasingly fond of gambling? Because the traditional path is no longer viable. The baby boomers could buy a car and a house through hard work. Now? Saving for twenty years might not even buy a run-down apartment. ETFs offering 7-8% annualized returns are compound interest for the wealthy, but a joke for ordinary people. Therefore, GameStop, Dogecoin, and memecoins are essentially the same thing: people abandoned by traditional paths are seeking asymmetrical opportunities for a turnaround. Crypto provides precisely this opportunity. The more compliant a market is, the harder it is to get rich quickly. Because the essence of compliance is protecting investors, and the cost of protecting investors is making it harder for smart people to make money. In a loosely regulated cryptocurrency environment, those with strong skills and good luck can win money from those with weaker skills and less luck. This is both a risk and an opportunity. Some say this is decadent. Then let me ask you: Are industries like TikTok, where you spend two hours scrolling through mindless short videos, mobile games, or paid knowledge courses that you never finish watching, truly noble? Ultimately, they all monetize human weaknesses. Crypto is simply more honest, directly linked to money. Instead of complaining, embrace change. Accept the fact that crypto is a giant casino, and then find your edge. Leave the task of reshaping the productivity curve and changing the world to AI. Crypto is used to fulfill humanity's most fundamental, primal need: gambling. Casino-like behavior is not the end, but the beginning. There's much more to come.
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Benson Sun
02-03
One day, if there’s ever a gold run and investors realize their “paper gold” can’t actually be redeemed for physical gold, Bitcoin will absolutely moon. Why? Because most people buying “paper gold”—whether it’s ETFs, futures, or gold accounts at banks—legally have zero obligation to ever get real gold. When these contracts expire, they can just settle in cash. No gold for you. You thought you were buying gold, but all you really bought was a price-tracking tool. This system works because almost nobody actually wants delivery; they just want exposure to price movements. Before expiry, people usually close or roll their positions. Less than 1% ever demand real delivery. But what if, one day, people do want the real thing? In 2011, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass dug into COMEX data and found $80 billion in open contracts, but only $2.7 billion worth of deliverable gold in the warehouse. He asked the head of delivery, “What if 4% of people ask for delivery?” The guy replied, “That never happens, we rarely go over 1%.” Kyle pressed, “But if it does?” The answer: “Price will solve everything.” Kyle said, “Thanks, I’ll take my gold.” And he actually helped the University of Texas endowment pull $1 billion in physical gold. He knew: paper claims and having it in your hand are two different things. This topic is back in the spotlight. In Feb 2025, Elon Musk questioned on X if America’s gold at Fort Knox is still there. Someone told him the last full public audit was in the 1950s—nothing since 1974. Musk said he wants to livestream a visit: “This is the American people’s gold. They deserve to see it.” Senator Rand Paul replied, “I’ve tried for ten years and never got in. Go for it.” Even the US government’s own gold reserves are being doubted. So how trustworthy do you think the gold behind ETFs and futures really is? As precious metals enter a supercycle and the world gets crazier, demand for physical gold will only rise. Sooner or later, someone is going to pierce the illusion. When the world finally realizes that all these “gold-backed” financial products aren’t truly backed 1:1 by actual gold, trust collapses—and there’s no going back. 21 million coins. On-chain, fully verifiable. Nobody can just print more out of thin air. What you hold is what you own—no leverage, no paper contracts. Maybe it happens in five years, maybe ten. But I believe we’ll see it. That’s when Bitcoin’s real supercycle begins.
BTC
10.56%
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Benson Sun
02-02
Thread
Recently, rumors about Brother Sun have been flying everywhere. Here, I'd like to share my personal experience of being "ripped off" by Brother Sun. At that time, I had two accounts on FTX, a main account and a secondary account. Let me start with my main account. At that time, I had an extremely high level of faith in FTX, so I buy the dips. The official explanation was later that FTT was essentially an equity concept, meaning there would be no compensation. So my main account went to zero. Now let's talk about the trumpet. The smaller account held approximately $2 million. At that time, I believed what Justin Sun said: he was willing to provide a 1:1 guarantee on TRX from FTX. After withdrawals were closed, FTX had become a "Happy Beans" exchange, and many people, because of Sun's statement, went on a buying spree of TRX on FTX. The price of TRX skyrocketed to six times its off-exchange price. I also bought it without really understanding what was going on, and ended up with almost a ton of TRX. Later, when FTX filed for bankruptcy, Sun said: "The promise of guaranteed repayment will never be broken." Then what? And that was it. He never came out to explain again. This resulted in a significant decrease in the book value of the account when I finally sold it. When I sold it, the market price was about 62%, so theoretically I could have sold it for around $1.2 million. However, because I bought TRX at a premium, the bond buyers only accepted the off-exchange TRX price, so in the end I only sold it for around $150,000. 1.2 million turned into 150,000. All thanks to Brother Sun. When people are desperate, they really will do the most extreme things. I should have known that Brother Sun's behavior had always been very shrewd; he would never do anything that would be detrimental to himself. But I did not condemn him because of this. For me, trusting Brother Sun and then getting scammed is my own problem. I won't blame anyone else for my own mistakes. In the crypto, every time you get scammed, it's a lesson. Whether the tuition is expensive or not depends on whether you actually learn something.
TRX
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