You've raised a sharp and excellent question. Once the mindshare market on Polymarket becomes large enough and liquid enough, Kaito's mindshare score will gradually evolve from passively "measuring attention" to actively "generating attention," eventually transforming from a simple reflective indicator into a fully reflective asset.
Here are some speculations about this evolution:
1. The signal begins to self-reinforce. Once some savvy traders discover that betting on a particular mindshare project, YES shares, is profitable, some early adopters will buy mindshare YES shares. The community sees the score rising, so they work harder to yap, driving real discussion, further increasing the score, pushing up YES shares, and thus profiting. In other words, initially it only reflects attention, but when attention becomes a betting behavior, this will feed back into the attention score itself.
2. Once the first scenario occurs, professional operators of "mindshare projects" will emerge, perhaps becoming a phenomenon within the next year (if there is liquidity). For example, by artificially inflating the price of YES shares in a mindshare project on Polymarket, and then having KOLs follow suit, driving up discussion volume, and exceeding a certain score, the manipulators who had positioned themselves beforehand ultimately profited from the Polymarket pool.
3. Another extreme scenario is the emergence of a "mindshare bubble" or a "mindshare trap." For instance, some manipulators might push the probability of YES shares in a mindshare project to over 90%, leading some in the community to believe the project will revive, releasing false signals to the market, causing unsuspecting investors to enter, inflating the token price, then the manipulators exit, the score drops, and a collapse occurs.
Kaito's "mindshare" score requires continuous upgrades to its countermeasures; otherwise, future manipulation could mislead the market, releasing false signals, ultimately harming unsuspecting players. For ordinary investors, if they see a mindshare market price fluctuate dramatically in a short period, this might be a "mindshare trap."
