avatar
alvin617.eth 🐻⛓️
20,369 Twitter followers
Follow
Building @CryptoWesearch I @allaboutbera I Crypto ‘17 I Dive into new narratives 💎 ⚙️ 新一代合規交易所 🎒 https://t.co/Arc1yjCrbS
Posts
avatar
alvin617.eth 🐻⛓️
Thread
She knows how to find catalog numbers and analyze catalog cycles; she's truly a super individual (?). So, should we buy the dips right now? (2024111120230) Based on the data provided by @wolfyxbt and @coolish, my conclusion is to lie low for now. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy the dips the dip. Although @TingHu888 mentioned in the comments that the actual date and number of days are not exactly 1064, they are very close. The "Kill the Wolf" framework states that it has only been 125 days since the last high, which is about 1/3 of the time, meaning there may be about 8 months of decline or consolidation. Wei Shen's framework states that the peak of Bitcoin's one-sided bull market occurred last October, coinciding with the Nasdaq's 1000-day cycle. This bear market will be more volatile, breaking traditional methods. 1️⃣ The first bull market shown in the chart: January 12, 2015 – December 11, 2017 Correction: Bitcoin's all-time high in 2017 occurred on December 16-17 (approximately $19,500-$19,783), not December 11. ☑️ The high was about 5-6 days later. 2️⃣ The second bull market shown in the chart: December 10, 2018 – November 8, 2021 Correction: The all-time high for 2021 occurred on November 10th (approximately $69,000), not November 8th ☑️ The high differed by about 2 days. 3️⃣ The third bull market shown in the chart: November 7, 2022 – October 6, 2025 Bitcoin did indeed reach an all-time high of approximately $125,836 on October 6, 2025. The figures for the third bull market are correct according to the "Sha Po Lang" (a popular Chinese martial arts novel) formula: the two bear markets lasted approximately 360-370 days each, and currently, only 125 days have passed since the high, which is about one-third of the way through. There may still be about eight months of decline or consolidation. At the same time, the magnitude of each decline is narrowing: -84% -> -78% -> -?%. If you capture 50%-60%... So the price might fall around 62,500 - 50,000. 💡 @coolish's previous tweet mentioned that the further back in time Trump is from the midterm elections, the less likely there will be any positive developments. In other words, the current period has the most variables, and the market will be most difficult to predict. The key will be the period after Q1. The market must change its strategy and break the past bull-bear cycle to reap the rewards for most people. His observation on the slope of the decline shared a few days ago was quite interesting; it seems he was saying that if the current decline is based on the premise that "it's impossible for it to go to zero,"... Panic and market declines may temporarily subside, but this doesn't mean further declines won't occur. A daily drop of $11k/day → another 6 days of decline to zero: Daily panic must slow before February 10th. A weekly drop of $10k/week → another 6 weeks of decline to zero: Weekly panic must slow before mid-March. These two time points also represent periods when market sentiment will change. The market bottom hasn't been reached yet; there may be plenty of opportunities to buy the dips. twitter.com/Alvin0617/status/2...
BTC
2.22%
avatar
alvin617.eth 🐻⛓️
Thread
A new world is dawning, and Grok is poised to catch up with other AI giants. On the surface, the X API downgrade does seem to make it easier for everyone to create various data products using Twitter content. However, I'm reminded that this also echoes an article I posted a few weeks ago. Based on the information available on X, the progress of Grok's algorithms will at some point significantly surpass that of its competitors, with an intensity comparable to Gemini's previous breakthrough or the global impact of OpenClaw.
WquGuru
@wquguru
X终于听劝，回归按量计费API，过去几年有个叫Chris的家伙，用老版Twitter API监控社交情绪，从2万美元本金炒到两百万，靠的就是实时捕捉趋势信号。 现在门槛归零，你也能复制类似玩法：建个实时监听Elon推文的bot，用Filtered Stream接收新帖，结合Grok x.com/XDevelopers/st…
avatar
alvin617.eth 🐻⛓️
Thread
Claude's launch of Opus 4.6 this morning has once again shocked the world. Polymarket data shows that the market believes the probability of Anthropic exceeding a $500 billion valuation this year has more than doubled from 40% at the beginning of the year to 83%. This new model has once again amazed the world, further enhancing the sophistication of AI's capabilities. This reminds me of SBF's investment in Anthropic... In 2021, SBF invested $500 million through FTX subsidiary Alameda Research, acquiring approximately 8% of Anthropic's shares. The latest valuation has reached $350 billion. Therefore, an 8% stake in Anthropic is currently worth $12-15 billion. SBF's initial $500 million investment almost became one of the most successful investments in AI history. twitter.com/Alvin0617/status/2...
ANTHROPIC
3.48%
avatar
alvin617.eth 🐻⛓️
Thread
0206 - Options betting exceeding hundreds of millions of dollars following market crash | _2024111120230_ | May fall below 20K this year There are two bets on the trading volume charts that suggest Bitcoin may fall below $20,000 this year... Are institutions still frantically seeking safe havens? Options trading volume rose again today, peaking at over $400 million. 1️⃣ All the stocks on the list are puts, mainly betting that the price of Bitcoin will fall below these prices, including some black swan events like 23,000. 2️⃣ The 60K, 65K, and 70K options currently set to exercise at the end of March happen to be the top three options in terms of trading volume, indicating that institutions believe the probability of a short-term rebound exceeding 70K in the next two months is low. 3️⃣ The first appearance of 25DEC26 on the list indicates an increasing probability of a bear market throughout the year. Some traders are starting to bet on this, and today presented a potential buy the dips opportunity with a "potential Lunar New Year rally." However, it seems that institutional betting has not improved at all, and reducing trading frequency remains the most important thing. twitter.com/Alvin0617/status/2...
BTC
2.22%
loading indicator
Loading..