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貝格先生🐢
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Narrative Trader｜On-Chain Analyst｜Index Investor 📰鏈上週報、教學、分析 ⭐️可以先參觀主頁的 highlight 區 以交易為生；已清倉逃頂；無群組 商務 TG：@colin_the_beggar 註冊 #Cryptocom 享最高手續費折扣👇
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Signal Clone Analysis
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貝格先生🐢
10-02
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Market Maker Strength Update & Bitfinex Premium Snapshot 📊 BTC is showing strong momentum, with the bulls securing another short-term win after the second retest of STH-RP. Let’s quickly revisit two key indicators I’ve shared before and do a technical check-in on where BTC stands right now. First up, liquidity: as shown in the attached chart, the most obvious liquidity cluster (orange line, around 119K) has been tapped. Above that, aside from price discovery/new highs, there’s no significant liquidity zone left. Even though the price is still below 119K, there’s no sign of a stop hunt at the moment. Next, two indicators developed by @coinkarma_ (see chart, top to bottom): 1️⃣ Overall Market Maker Status (Overall LIQ) Mentioned previously in my ETH analysis (x.com/market_beggar/status/196...…), this indicator weights the liquidity profiles of top market cap coins, reflecting the overall strength of market makers. As BTC has rallied, this indicator is turning more negative, signaling increasing resistance in the mid/short term—a typical sign during an uptrend. If strong taker activity doesn’t kick in soon, further upside could face hurdles. 2️⃣ Bitfinex Premium For details, check the link below, but in short: this compares BTC prices on Bitfinex and Coinbase, giving us a look at what OG whales on Bitfinex are thinking. Currently, the Bitfinex premium has faded quickly, but we’re not seeing a major discount yet. So, from this angle, there’s no obvious risk on the table. To be honest, I don’t have a super clear read on this BTC rally right now. My personal bias: if we don’t see a stop hunt at 119K, there’s a solid chance for more upside, with the next liquidity target being new ATHs 📈. Even though I’m still holding a sizable short and price has bounced back to my entry, credit where credit’s due—the bulls are strong in the short/mid-term, and technically, there’s nothing clearly blocking the move up (unless a stop hunt shows up). Lastly, in my “BTC Macro Strategy Framework” post, I originally expected BTC to follow Scenario 2, but right now it looks more like Scenario 1 is playing out… 🥹 That’s it for today’s technical update—I hope it helps! Tomorrow I’ll share another perspective based on on-chain data & signals. // 📚 Further Reading: Why I don’t trade breakouts: the liquidity trap set by market makers x.com/market_beggar/status/190...… BTC Technical Analysis: Macro Strategy Framework x.com/market_beggar/status/196...… // Hope this was helpful 🫡 Both indicators mentioned are developed by @coinkarma_—check their site for a free 14-day trial if you’re interested! Plus, here’s a special offer for my followers: From now until 10/20, new users can get their first month for just $10 (normally $69/month) by using code “beggar10” at checkout—save $59 on your first month 💰 If you like it after trying, use my invite code in the comments below to get an extra 15% subscription extension ✅ twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
ETH
3.78%
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貝格先生🐢
09-29
BTC Accumulation Trend Score: Big Players Are Slowing Down Their Buying ⚠️ Last time, I talked about "conviction buyers" and how their behavior relates to BTC bull/bear cycles (see thread below). Today, I want to share another interesting on-chain metric: Accumulation Trend Score. Here’s a quick intro to this metric, how it’s calculated, and a potential risk signal that’s flashing right now 👇 📊 What is the Accumulation Trend Score? ➡️ It tracks the trend of wallet balance changes by different cohorts over the past month to gauge the strength of accumulation. ➡️ Score ranges from 0 to 1. ➡️ Closer to 1 = large players have been aggressively accumulating over the past month. ➡️ Closer to 0 = large players have stopped accumulating, or even distributing. ➡️ Miners, exchanges, etc. are excluded from the calculation to filter out noise. ➡️ Uses a 90-day window to standardize data for comparability across cycles. As shown in the chart: 🟪 Darker color = score closer to 1 = more aggressive accumulation by large players. 🟨 Lighter color = score closer to 0 = accumulation halted or distribution underway. Now, let’s look at the current market using this chart: 1️⃣ March 2024: Color shifted from dark to light Last March, we saw the first major distribution event (see pinned tweet). BTC chopped sideways for 200+ days, alts went straight into a bear market. The metric clearly flipped from deep color (accumulation) to light (distribution/stop). 2️⃣ January 2025: Color shifted from dark to light again This January, BTC saw a second major distribution (see pinned tweet). The score also turned lighter, and the market quickly topped out. 3️⃣ Now: Color is fading again As shown, the score is gradually turning lighter again—not fully yellow yet, but definitely an early risk signal‼️ Combine this with other major top signals I’ve shared before: - RUP triple divergence - Massive Realized Profit (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…) - Price/PSIP decoupling (x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…) - New daily highs Stop Hunt (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…) - Lower High confirmed on the technical chart (x.com/market_beggar/status/197...…) - Short-term holder cost basis breakdown (x.com/market_beggar/status/197...…) …and more. IMO, BTC is now entering a stage that’s increasingly close to a major cycle top ⚠️ Quick update for everyone: My previously disclosed low-leverage, long-term short positions are still unchanged. Both entries are around $118K, total leverage = 1.11x: x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… That’s it for today—hope this helps! Risk management first. Wishing everyone success in protecting your hard-earned gains 🫡 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
STOP
9.75%
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貝格先生🐢
09-26
Retesting the Lifeline: BTC Drops Below Short-Term Holder Realized Price Again ⚠️ Quick update on a key signal today: STH-RP. As mentioned in my previous post, price was approaching STH-RP again. Zooming into the lower timeframes, BTC has tested STH-RP five times since 9/22, and finally broke below it during yesterday’s sharp drop, pulling away significantly‼️ 📊 Current STH-RP sits around 111,619, just under spot price. It’s been less than a month since the last STH-RP test. Back on 8/29 ~ 9/01, BTC hovered near STH-RP for four days, eventually finding temporary support there and bouncing📈 Previous update: x.com/market_beggar/status/196...… Now, with multiple bearish signals weighing on BTC, the support from STH-RP in early September failed to kickstart a new trend. Price is back at STH-RP again, and as of the 9/25 close, we’ve confirmed a breakdown📉 As stated in my previous post: With a confirmed macro Lower Low and persistent top signals (RUP divergence, massive Realized Profit, etc.), I’ve always been conservative about STH-RP’s support power from a macro perspective. I still see the medium-term downside target at least 107,200 (details in the previous post)❗️ Less than a month since the last STH-RP defense—can BTC find support again at this level? Let’s wait and see... // 📚 Related Reads BTC Macro Strategy Framework x.com/market_beggar/status/196...… Intro to Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… Cycle Top Signals: RUP 3-Stage Divergence & Massive Realized Profit x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… // 【Sponsored】 Partnered with Crypto_com Exchange 🥳 Crypto_com has a killer feature: soft lockup. Just deposit funds into your Crypto_com trading account and earn daily flexible interest. Best part: funds used for open orders and unrealized PnL are also counted for interest, so you’re maximizing capital efficiency💰 Interested in signing up? Use my invite link in my profile🔗 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
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貝格先生🐢
09-25
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Recap & Alpha Thread: OKX USDT Flexible Savings Rate Spikes Once Again Signal a Market Top🌡 Let’s talk about a sentiment indicator we haven’t discussed in a while. Two months ago, I posted a thread (linked below) introducing a fresh way to gauge market sentiment: monitoring the “USDT Flexible Savings Rate on OKX Exchange.” Fast forward to today, and this method has once again proven its value👇 Here’s a quick refresher for both new and old friends on the concept of sentiment indicators: We all know the classic line: “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.” But in practice, it’s easier said than done🤷‍♂️ That’s where the idea of “quantifying market sentiment” comes in. There are tons of sentiment indicators out there, including: ➡️ Fear & Greed Index ➡️ VIX ➡️ US Money Flow Sentiment Curve (x.com/market_beggar/status/188...…) ➡️ Borrowing/Lending Rates (x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…) ➡️ Coinbase App Ranking (x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…) Plus, the “Coinbase Premium/Discount” I often mention also counts. There are endless types of indicators, but the goal is always to monitor if sentiment is overheating🔭 Today’s spotlight: “OKX USDT Flexible Savings Rate” as a sentiment indicator. The gist: OKX’s flexible savings rate tends to spike suddenly. By visualizing this rate as a chart, we can track when these “clustered spikes” appear. For a detailed intro, check the thread below—I won’t repeat everything here. The attached chart is @coinkarma_’s “OKX Flexible Rate Monitor.” Back when I posted on 7/29, the rate had already spiked twice in a short period. Since then, we saw 4 significant spikes in total, plus a bunch of smaller, clustered ones💉 As mentioned before: If the USDT flexible savings rate suddenly jumps, it signals a surge in demand for borrowing USDT—everyone wants to borrow to trade, which is a classic sign of overheated sentiment🌡 As you can see in the chart, after those clustered spikes in July, BTC went sideways for a while, then topped out via a classic stop-hunt to new highs: x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… After those spikes, BTC dropped as much as ~14% from the local top📉 When I posted on 7/29, I had no idea how it would play out; But once again, the OKX savings rate spike nailed the top and proved its alpha. Looking ahead, if we see similar clustered spikes in the OKX savings rate, it might be a good time to watch out for a potential correction...⚠️ // That’s it for today’s share—hope this helps🫡 The “OKX Flexible Rate Monitor” by @coinkarma_ is the tool I mentioned. You can check it out on their official site—there’s a free 14-day trial! Plus, I secured a special perk for my followers: From now until 10/20, new users get their first month for just $10✨ (Normally $69/month—just enter the code “beggar10” at checkout to save $59💰) If you like the tool, register with my referral code in the comments below for an extra 15% extension on your subscription✅ twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3%
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貝格先生🐢
09-24
Analyzing the BTC bull-bear cycle from the perspective of Conviction Buyers 🔬 Previously, I introduced the “Five Major Buyer Groups Heatmap” (x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…), where one group stands out: the Conviction Buyers—those who buy BTC during dips 💎 Normally, the heatmap tracks their short- and mid-term behavior. But if you zoom out to a wider timeframe, some interesting patterns emerge 👇: Since BTC’s inception, aside from volatility, it’s basically been a raging bull. So those Conviction Buyers scooping up BTC during crashes have truly shown remarkable foresight. That’s why I always highlight their moves in my previous posts 👀 When we track the Five Major Buyer Groups, the methodology is similar to an RSI indicator, so it leans towards mid/short-term windows like 7 or 14 days. ⚡️ Here’s where it gets interesting: If we isolate the Conviction Buyers and disregard any time parameters, simply charting the historical “BTC supply held by Conviction Buyers,” we get the chart above: 🔸 I marked the supply = 1M BTC with a red horizontal line. 🔸 Each time “Conviction Buyer supply < 1M” is flagged with a vertical line. Observations: 1️⃣ Almost every time Conviction Buyer supply drops below 1M, it’s a cycle top. 2️⃣ The only exception was the 2017 peak, where supply bottomed at about 1.2M. 3️⃣ In the double top of 2021, supply dipped to around 1.03M. 4️⃣ Early 2025’s top saw supply drop to about 0.82M. 5️⃣ Shrinking supply = fewer Conviction Buyers, more selling. I’ve emphasized that this cycle is dramatically different from previous ones; the current Conviction Buyer supply situation is unique. As shown, since around July this year, their supply has hovered near 1M for an unusually long time—a pattern never seen before‼️ A similar phenomenon is happening with the “1y~3y holders” I previously covered. Check out the thread here: x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… Bottom line: My view hasn’t changed since the start of the year. Whether you look at long/short-term holders, 1y-3y group share, or today’s Conviction Buyer supply, the data all points to us being closer to the top than the bottom‼️ From a cyclical trading perspective, I absolutely don’t think now is the time to go spot bottom-fishing. Still, we can’t ignore how unique this cycle is—so many unprecedented patterns have emerged. I’ve written a deep-dive analysis on this topic before, linked below for those interested. History never repeats, but it often rhymes. How it’ll rhyme this time? Only time will tell… ⏳ // 📚 Further reading: Who’s buying now? Heatmap of the five major buyer groups by address: x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… 1y-3y holders share: The second top that tempted more smart long-term holders to sell: x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… On-chain data view: Exploring the fading BTC cycles: x.com/market_beggar/status/191...… Zombie rally: On-chain analysis of the bizarre 2021 double top: x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… 2021 double top revisited: What is “future data leakage”? x.com/market_beggar/status/189...… Thread compilation: Research & analysis on cyclical tops: x.com/market_beggar/status/196...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3%
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