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貝格先生🐢
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Narrative Trader｜On-Chain Analyst｜Index Investor 📰鏈上週報、教學、分析 ⭐️可以先參觀主頁的 highlight 區 以交易為生；已清倉逃頂；無群組 商務 TG：@colin_the_beggar 註冊 #Cryptocom 享最高手續費折扣👇
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貝格先生🐢
🗞 Bloomberg Chain Weekly Report (63) Special Edition: A Phase Summary After the Crash BTC has fallen by nearly 40% in the last three weeks. The market also saw a maximum drop of about 24% this week, and in the blink of an eye, it was plunged into a bloodbath. This week's report will include a few more items, mainly: 🔺 This Week's Signal Summary 🔺 Next Week's Content Plan Now, let's officially begin this week's "Tragic Recap" 👇: // 🟡 Chip Distribution Chart Update As usual, here's a quick update to the CBD chip distribution chart for this week: 📝 The CBD heat map has three dimensions: time, price, and number of chips; Unlike the URPD chart, the CBD Heatmap uses "address-based" statistics. Even if BTC experiences a precipitous drop, the massive amount of tokens buy the dips around 80K previously... To this day, they have absolutely no intention of selling off their shares. To be honest, I'm becoming more and more curious about their identities. In addition, because the price has now left the trading range that lasted for more than two months, Therefore, in the following weekly report, we can use the CBD heat map to... This is to monitor whether there are any large investors accumulating shares in the following period. At this stage, due to the short time frame, no new accumulation of shares has been observed. // 🟡 This week's key signals may have already been noticed by some: the amount of information contained in my posts this week has increased. This is because as a trend emerges, more information gradually comes to light in the market. The script we had previously planned is gradually becoming clearer. Below, I will quickly summarize the key points of this week's posts for you: 1️⃣ STH-RP model blue line with deviation adjustment: a strong support zone 🔗 Original link: x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… During the sharp drop on Thursday and Friday this week, BTC immediately reached the area indicated by the blue line. As shown in the image below (image taken from the original text), historically, whenever the price reaches the blue line, Without exception, they all experienced a strong rebound, or even a reversal of the trend. - 2️⃣ Filling the thin areas of URPD is underway 🔗 Original link: x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… The "vacuum-like region (rare region)" that originally existed at 71~80K, After more than a year, the market has finally begun to recover due to this sharp drop. If the previous lack of upward momentum was due to the drag from the vacuum gap, This filling of gaps may be precisely to resolve potential risks and make ample preparations for a new bull market. - 3️⃣ Latest data on extreme valuations in the BTC bear market 🔗 Original link: x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… The magnitude of the decline has forced us to start paying attention to these buy the dips models with a 100% historical success rate. The data for the four indicators in the original text (02/06) are as follows: 🔸 AVIV Heatmap (Blue area): 64.826 🔸 Realized Price: 55,588 🔸 Cointime Price: 51,784 🔸 LTH-RP: 40,288 The latest values ​​for these models haven't changed much since only two days have passed. You can still use the above values ​​as a reference. To reiterate, these models can be said to accurately capture every bear market bottom in BTC's history. For those interested in delving deeper, I've included detailed explanations in the original article link above. 📝 / / 🟡 Mid-term summary & next week's post plan: This week's BTC market witnessed an epic spectacle: It plummeted 15% in a single day, then rebounded nearly 20% the following day. During this period, many signals were actually triggered, including the PSIP buy the dips signal I mentioned yesterday. This sharp drop has already approached the threshold.⚠️ Another classic sentiment indicator, the Fear & Greed Index, also plummeted to 5 🚨 It's worth noting that the last time it fell this low was back in 2019... Starting tomorrow, I will mainly be sharing the following content with you: ➡️ Detailed Analysis of the Current Status of PSIP Deep Bear Buy the dips Signal ➡️ Important Notes During the Bottom-Building and Consolidation Phase & Mid-Term Technical Strategic Framework ➡️ Data Updates for Various Buy the dips Models & Other Special Signals Because we are currently in a relatively critical phase, The amount of information in my future posts may increase, so please bear with me. The familiar era of mad dog Crypto seems to be back; 2026 is something to look forward to ⚡️ That concludes this week's report. Have a wonderful weekend! 🚊 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3.26%
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貝格先生🐢
Latest BTC Deep Bear Valuation Data: Cheap BTC Is Really Coming 💎 Yesterday, BTC experienced a rare “single-day drop of over 10%,” with insane volume on the daily chart. A nearly 10k crash wiped out the market in silence. Unfortunately, those hoping for Scenario 2 will probably be disappointed. Times are tough, but it’s time to prep for crypto winter👇: Check the attached chart—three colored lines: ➡️ Realized Price (market average cost) ➡️ Cointime Price (time-weighted market average cost) ➡️ LTH-RP (long-term holder average cost) Of course, the AVIV Heatmap—our “cycle thermometer”—is here too, with the blue zone boundary 🔵 for reference and comparison. Except for AVIV (a “zone” concept), the other three lines have historically marked the 100% win-rate “deep bear bottom.” In other words, even if price briefly dips below, the true bear market bottom never strays far. New to these metrics? Full guides here👇: 📖 AVIV Heatmap: x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… 📖 Realized Price: x.com/market_beggar/status/186...… 📖 Cointime Price: x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… 📖 LTH-RP: x.com/market_beggar/status/186...… Back to today’s numbers: 🔸 AVIV Heatmap Blue Zone: 64,826 🔸 Realized Price: 55,588 🔸 Cointime Price: 51,784 🔸 LTH-RP: 40,288 🎞 Bonus: STH-RP Model (deviation-adjusted) Blue Line ≈ 69K 📖 “Power of the Blue Line”: BTC support & historical review x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… Yesterday’s dump brought BTC much closer to deep bear valuations, meaning my previous two-scenario roadmap (x.com/market_beggar/status/201...…) now has only one path left—no signs of a 74.5K stop hunt reversal. But if you’re a spot holder and believe in BTC’s long-term value, don’t get too bearish. Price is nearing the models’ fair value—BTC is getting cheaper, and we’re almost at the “super golden pit” ☄️ Quick reminder: BTC is now at the “deviation-adjusted STH-RP model blue line🔵.” Historically, this blue line is strong support, but it doesn’t always bounce right away. Check the previous links for detailed analysis 🔗. TL;DR: From a cycle-trading perspective, and based on my “74K Must Hit” analysis (x.com/market_beggar/status/201...…), the odds are high that this cycle’s bottom forms somewhere between 49K–74K. IMO, this is a prime area for scaling in 💰 📝 Cycle trading: Only buy at bear bottoms, sell at bull tops, no other moves in between. Can’t predict the short-term, but from a long-term view, BTC is down 45% from ATH. Combine these deep bear valuation models and the “49K–74K” mega consolidation zone, and personally: “Buying here and holding patiently is a positive EV move🔋” Of course, this is just my bias, not investment advice ⚠️. First rule: “Be responsible for your own wallet.” Just sharing my perspective—final decisions are yours. That’s all for today—hope this helps🫡 // 【Ad Time】 “If you’re sitting on a pile of U but not ready to catch the bottom…💰” Check out Bitget Wallet’s on-chain yield: ✅ Long-term APY = 10%, sourced from AAVE + Bitget Wallet subsidies ✅ Stablecoin (USDC), deposit from just 1 U, redeem anytime ✅ Transparent, no re-staking, no looping, low-risk profile Interested? Register with my invite code👇 Invite Code: “3jTNi6” (manual binding required) twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3.26%
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貝格先生🐢
02-05
Technical Analysis 101: The Ideal Bottom Structure from a Liquidity Perspective 🪤 BTC has been on a relentless downtrend lately, and “when to bottom fish” is the hottest question on everyone’s mind. I’ve shared my trading plan and thoughts on future price action several times this week—if you’re interested, check the summary at the end of this thread. Today, let’s tackle a burning question: “What does an ideal bottom structure look like❓” 💬 Preface: This thread approaches the topic from a liquidity angle, sharing my own bias on bottoming structures. Every TA school has its own view on what a bottom should look like—this is just my take. Many concepts here are explained in detail in my previous posts (links at the end for those who want to dive deeper). // First, from the “liquidity magnet” perspective, an ideal bottom structure should have: 🔺 Sufficient sideways chop: enough time for proper accumulation/distribution and to build consensus at the lows 🔺 No leftover liquidity below the range: the lows shouldn’t be packed with uncleared liquidity 📖 Stop Hunt Mechanics Explainer: x.com/market_beggar/status/190...… Recent price action has already proven the importance of the second point. Quick recap: After BTC’s local bottom on Nov 21, 2025, following a massive dump, we saw about two months of sideways chop. I tracked this structure and updated regularly. The end result? A ton of liquidity was left sitting below the range—a classic “liquidity magnet” setting up for downside risk. We all know what happened next: price nuked through the range lows and the bottoming attempt failed ❌ For those interested, here are two posts with my analysis at the time: 📖 The Gravity of Liquidity Is Taking Hold (2026/01/21) x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… 📖 Downside Risk Ramping Up & Calm Before the Storm (2026/01/26) x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… // Looking at the current market, whether it plays out as: ➡️ Scenario 2: Stop Hunt at 74K ➡️ Scenario 3: Even deeper correction From a liquidity lens, an ideal bottom should check both boxes above. Let’s say we eventually bottom around the “STH-RP model blue line🔵” (deviation-adjusted). Ideally, the chart would show: ✅ A sideways range forming around the blue line ✅ A stop hunt on the range low before the bottom is confirmed ✅ If it’s a large range, price may not immediately reclaim after sweeping the lows ✅ The range low forms a smaller local range, and we see a stop hunt on that smaller structure—timeframe confluence 🚫 What we DON’T want to see: price mooning off the range low while leaving a ton of liquidity uncollected 🚫 What we DON’T want: a bottom that forms too quickly, without enough time for proper accumulation 📖 The “Blue Line Power”: Major BTC Support & Historical Case Studies x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… Same logic applies if a sideways range forms elsewhere—the monitoring method stays the same. For how to spot a stop hunt, check the linked threads at the end—main thing to look for is a strong Taker presence (not going to repeat the details here). // The two months of chop after Nov 21, 2025, was a textbook example of a “bad” bottom structure—leftover liquidity below = gravity effect. No matter where the next bottom forms or when the Taker steps in, the ideal bottom structure needs to satisfy the conditions above. That’s what gives us conviction to ape in heavy at the lows🔋 Finally, here’s a roundup of all my recent analysis—basically all my current thoughts in one place, for those who want a deep dive: 📖 “74K Magnet”: New Liquidity Gravity Zone Formed (Full Trading Scenarios Inside) x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… 📖 “Gap Filling”: 74K Target Hit as Planned, How Low Can BTC Go? x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… // If you want to learn more about practical “liquidity” trading strategies, I’ve written detailed guides before—see below, hope they’re helpful! 📖 Two Entry Methods in My Personal Perp Swing System x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… 📖 RektProof Model Translation & My Insights x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… 📖 Receipts: How I Used Liquidity to Perfectly Predict Two ETH Pumps x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… That’s it for today—hope you found this helpful! 🫡 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3.26%
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貝格先生🐢
02-04
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“Gap Filling Underway”: 74K Target Hit Right On Schedule – Where’s the Bottom for BTC? 🚏 Picking up from the quote below, my headline “74K Is a Must” came true in just 2 days—once again, liquidity analysis proves its worth. Today, I want to share two main things: 1️⃣ The latest state of BTC’s supply structure 2️⃣ Updated market scenarios & what to watch next Let’s dive in 👇 Attached is the URPD chart, which shows how BTC’s supply is distributed. For a deep dive into URPD analysis logic and tutorials, check this link: x.com/market_beggar/status/196...… As mentioned up top, here’s what I want to report: 1️⃣ BTC Supply Distribution: Thin Zone Getting Filled If you’ve been following BTC’s supply structure for a while—or reading my weekly reports—you’ve probably noticed the “near vacuum” between 71K and 80K. In my last URPD post (Weekly Report #61), the chart clearly showed this thin zone: x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… If we treat 71K~80K as a URPD vacuum, then, as always, BTC price tends to fill every vacuum zone in its supply structure. If price pumps hard before filling the gap, it’s highly likely to revisit and fill it later. 📖 More on what a URPD vacuum means: x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… Bottom line: If weak price action is due to the need to fill this vacuum, then this move back into 71K~80K could clear out risks for the next major bull run. This is super healthy for the market’s long-term growth ✅ 2️⃣ Market Scenarios & Monitoring Strategies To not waste your time, I’ve already detailed two future trading scenarios in the quote below. Feel free to read up—won’t repeat myself here. Last night during US market hours, BTC hit 74K as expected, sweeping the liquidity from the previous local low (April 2025 wick). Lots of questions coming in: 💬 “Are we in Scenario 2 now?” 💬 “Is there a strong Taker? Taker buy showing up?” 💬 “Did we complete the Stop Hunt?” Since there’s so much interest, let me respond to all at once 📝: ➡️ Watch the next 1–2 weeks: Does BTC reclaim 74.5K? ➡️ If it reclaims 74.5K, is there strong Taker Buy action? ➡️ Since this is a bigger move, Takers won’t show up instantly—some chop is possible. ➡️ If we just keep grinding down, the Stop Hunt at 74.5K may not play out. ➡️ If so, we’ll switch to Scenario 3 (see quote for details). If you’re still unclear, drop a comment below or join our public chat (link on profile) to discuss with everyone ☕️ Here’s a quick and dirty way to judge 🔭: If price keeps chopping just below 74.5K—not breaking down, not reclaiming—then suddenly pops above 74.5K on a big daily green candle, odds of Stop Hunt success at 74.5K go up 📈 Right now, the only thing missing is volume. Ideal bottoms usually come with “extreme volume” (daily chart), but we haven’t seen that yet. Let’s clear up some common misconceptions: ➡️ Huge volume is a bonus for bottoms, but not a must-have ❌ ➡️ Bottoms often show huge volume, but huge volume doesn’t guarantee a bottom ❌ That’s it for today—stay patient and wait for that golden trigger moment 🫡 📚 Further Reading: BTC TA Update: Rising Downside Risk & Calm Before the Storm x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… Storm Arrives: Liquidity Gravity Intensifies, Stop Hunt Is Close x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… “74K Is a Must”: New Liquidity Gravity Zone Forms x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… “Blue Line Power”: Discussing BTC’s Strong Support & Historical Review x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… 【Shill Time】 Got a bag full of USDT but don’t want to buy the dip right now? 💰 Here’s a solid place to park your funds: Bitget Wallet On-chain Yield ✅ Long-term APY = 10%, sourced from AAVE + Bitget Wallet’s ongoing subsidies ✅ Stablecoin yield (USDC), start with just $1, redeem anytime ✅ Transparent, no re-staking, no circular lending—low risk maintained Interested? Register with my invite code below 👇 Invite code: “3jTNi6” (manual binding required) twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3.26%
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貝格先生🐢
02-03
"The Power of the Blue Line": A Deep Dive into BTC’s Major Support & Historical Recap 📊 As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis (quoted below), BTC has now formed a new set of Equal Lows around the 74.5K level—another liquidity cluster. That’s why I see a high probability of a revisit to 74.5K in the near future. Continuing on this topic, let’s talk about the strongest support zone closest to the current price (see chart below): The indicator shown is the “Deviation-Adjusted STH-RP.” Quick refresher on how it works: ➡️ Calculate the average and standard deviation of STH-MVRV since 2018 ➡️ Multiply STH-RP by “STH-MVRV average ± n standard deviations” ➡️ We use post-2018 data because STH-MVRV has shown clear mean reversion since then. 🟥 Red = STH-RP × (STH-MVRV avg + 1 SD) 🟨 Yellow = STH-RP 🟩 Green = STH-RP × (STH-MVRV avg - 1 SD) 🟦 Blue = STH-RP × (STH-MVRV avg - 1.5 SD) 📖 Model explainer: x.com/market_beggar/status/190...… // 📊 Currently, the Blue Line price ≈ $69,874 Why highlight this data? Simple: As mentioned yesterday, IF we play out the “74K Stop Hunt” scenario, the spike low during that liquidity sweep has a strong chance of tagging the Blue Line (🔵) for support, creating a resonance. To help you understand the Blue Line’s historical track record, I’ve marked every BTC touch of the Blue Line from late 2018 to now on the chart. Here’s a quick textual recap: 1️⃣ Late 2018: Price first touches the Blue Line, and bottoms within a month (cycle bottom). 2️⃣ March 2020: COVID black swan event sees BTC nuke right to the Blue Line, then a sharp V-shaped recovery. 3️⃣ June-July 2021: BTC touches the Blue Line in both June and July, marking a local bottom before rallying to new ATHs. 4️⃣ January 2022: Bounced off the Blue Line for a ~46% rally, but ultimately turned into a bearish continuation. 5️⃣ June 2022: Luna crash—BTC dumps into the Blue Line and chops for 2 months, max bounce ~43%, but FTX collapse sends it lower. // Key point: Since the Luna event in June 2022, BTC hasn’t touched the Blue Line again—and even Green Line tags have been rare. From these cases, a few conclusions: ➡️ Touching the Blue Line has a high probability of marking a bottom ➡️ Could be a local or a cycle bottom ➡️ Sometimes a quick V-reversal, sometimes a prolonged base before pumping ➡️ Every single touch has led to a strong bounce (either a reversal or a major relief rally) Personally, if BTC breaks 74.5K in the future, tags the Blue Line, AND completes a Stop Hunt with 1–2 months of basing (ideally with minimal liquidity left below), the probability of a solid bottom increases massively—and that’s when I’ll go all in with my remaining spot allocation. For me, I’d rather see some healthy consolidation and rotation at the lows, not just a straight V-recovery. That’d build a much stronger base given current market structure 📈 // I don’t know if BTC will bounce or reverse after hitting the Blue Line. But as long as there are enough bottom signals, from a cyclical trading perspective, that’s a +EV (positive expected value) spot to buy the dip. Side note: I already know that IF we dip to the Blue Line and don’t instantly moon, there’ll be tons of FUD: 👶 “Didn’t you say this was strong support? Why isn’t it pumping?” 👶 “Blue Line’s hit, but feels like we’re not done dumping.” 👶 “Is the Blue Line invalid now?” Once again, history shows that while the first touch of the Blue Line usually brings a strong bounce, it’s not always “instant”—sometimes price chops around for 1–2 months before launching. Just a heads up so I can screenshot this later and reply to those questions 🚬 // Last but not least, since so many have asked: Here’s my game plan: As long as the 74.5K liquidity (Equal Lows) remains untested, I’m not going all in with my spot bags. To reiterate: Because of the Equal Lows setup, I think the odds of BTC revisiting 74.5K are extremely high. So if we pump straight up from here without sweeping that liquidity, I’m doing nothing until 74.5K gets hunted. Full logic is detailed in the quoted thread below. DYOR if you’re interested. That’s all for today—hope this helps! 🫡 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3.26%
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貝格先生🐢
02-02
"74K Incoming": The New Liquidity Magnet Zone Is Here ⚠️ 🪧 TL;DR: This post dives into both liquidity and on-chain analysis, sharing my bias for the coming market moves and a full trading plan. The weekend’s sudden dump reignited bearish vibes across the market. But maybe you missed it: a new signal is quietly flashing, and a sweep of 74K is now a high-probability event...👇 // 🟡 Quick Recap Previously, I outlined three scenarios for BTC’s next move: 1️⃣ Stop Hunt at 80.5K, then bottom out 2️⃣ Stop Hunt at 74K, then bottom out 3️⃣ No Stop Hunt at either level, deeper correction If you’ve been around, you know a proper Stop Hunt needs three things: ✅ Break below the liquidity zone ✅ Reclaim the zone after the break ✅ Strong taker buy on the reclaim 📖 More on Stop Hunt mechanics & live case study: x.com/market_beggar/status/190...… When BTC broke 80.5K over the weekend, there was no strong taker buy. Plus, weekend action is often fakeout territory—historically, weekend pumps/dumps get faded. I flagged this in the group right away. 💭 Free group chat: x.com/market_beggar/status/200...… BTC kept bleeding, no taker buy defense in sight. Scenario 1 invalidated, and the direction is getting clearer. // 🟡 New Risk Signal Just Dropped Besides confirming scenario 1’s fail, the weekend crash gave us a major clue: BTC just printed new Equal Lows around 74K‼️ Equal Lows = horizontal wicks that are nearly identical and none dips below the leftmost wick. This signals "liquidity pooling"—and per the “liquidity magnet effect” I’ve been hammering, price has a high chance of revisiting those Equal Lows to sweep liquidity. See the chart: Weekend's low now matches the April 2025 low, forming new Equal Lows. No matter what happens next, odds are high we’ll revisit 74K and clear out that liquidity‼️ I’ve shared how to trade these liquidity clusters before. My recent post, "Rising Downside Risk & Calm Before the Storm," was based on exactly this concept—and once again, liquidity proved its power. 📖 BTC TA Update: Downside Risk & Calm Before the Storm x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… If you’re skeptical, go back and check BTC’s historical price action. See if any Equal Lows/Highs have never been swept. Anyone doubting this will get the point after a proper backtest. // 🟡 Next Trading Scenarios Here’s my current playbook: 🔸1. Stop Hunt at 74K, then bottom out—major cycle bottom confirmed For a proper Stop Hunt, we need: ✅ Break below 74K ✅ Reclaim 74K after the break ✅ Strong taker buy on the reclaim Worth noting: Below 74K sits a super strong support from another on-chain model, the “Deviation-Adjusted STH-RP Model”📊 📖 Short-Term Holder Cost & Support Zone Update x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… Blue line on this model is around 70K. If we get a Stop Hunt, it’ll perfectly resonate with this model, setting a solid base for the next leg up📈 - 🔸2. No Stop Hunt at 74K—hunt for support lower If we break 74K and no taker steps in, price could genuinely break down. Then we look for other bottom signals. I’ve shared this before; check these posts: 📖 BTC Deep Bear Extreme Valuations x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… Key metrics/models I’m watching: ➡️ Cointime Price: ~51,667 Details: x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… ➡️ Realized Price (Market Avg Cost): ~55,868 Details: x.com/market_beggar/status/186...… ➡️ AVIV Heatmap Blue Zone: ~65,220 Details: x.com/market_beggar/status/201...… If price nukes to these levels, I guarantee these are cycle-level golden buying zones. I’ll be deploying the rest of my funds there, maybe even with leverage💰 If you’re unsure, check the indicator explanations above—each time price hit these levels, it marked major cycle bottoms. No exceptions. // 🟡 2024’s Super Consolidation Zone Let me add another key support zone to watch. Flashback to 2024: After the first big BTC distribution in March, BTC entered a massive ~200-day chop range. Only after Trump’s win did the next mega rally kick off, but it also triggered another big distribution. 📖 Early 2025 Top Call: Be Ready to Exit x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… Most missed it: A 200-day sideways range for BTC is rare. Consolidation is all about churn—longer stays mean buyers can absorb whales’ sell pressure. Tons of capital was willing to buy BTC at those levels. Normally, a range resolves quickly, since bulls/bears reach a standoff, and any small catalyst can tip the scales🌾 But over 200 days of chop is wild. ETF approval and fresh external money caught all the old whale selling, cementing that range as a solid base. So: "The consolidation zone (49~74K) is very likely a strong support region." Notice: All those super strong bear-market valuation zones match perfectly with this big consolidation range. Bottom line: "BTC’s cycle bottom this round will likely form between 49K~74K‼️" Believe it or not, time will tell. // 🟡 Wrap-Up Quick summary📝: 🔺 No taker buy at 80.5K breakdown—scenario 1 invalidated 🔺 New Equal Lows at 74K—high odds of a sweep coming 🔺 Scenario 1: Stop Hunt at 74K + STH-RP model blue line confluence 🔺 Scenario 2: No Stop Hunt at 74K—hunt for deeper support 🔺 2024’s 3~11 month mega chop zone is likely the cycle bottom for this round Some may feel lost/disappointed at scenario 1’s failure, but I see the market getting clearer—not a bad thing. Trading is all about planning and then validating. Now that scenario 1’s off the table, we’ve got strong support below. If you’re long-term bullish on BTC and believe in its revolutionary value, this dump should get bulls excited—BTC is officially getting cheaper💎 If you thought 100K+ BTC was too expensive, isn’t this the time to be happy? Bit of a long post, but I wanted to cover all the bases. Hope this helps—good luck trading this week!🫡 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3.26%
avatar
貝格先生🐢
01-30
The storm has arrived as expected: liquidity magnet is still in play, and the Stop Hunt is just around the corner 🌪 BTC got absolutely wrecked during the US session last night. A lot of people have already lost their patience after getting chopped up in this endless range, and now they're starting to fade BTC as their own bags bleed out... But if you’ve been following Beggar for a while, you’d know this dump was well telegraphed. Let’s do a quick update on the current state of the market👇 (chart was from yesterday, current price is around 82K). As the quoted post below says: “Downside risk increasing.” With the current BTC structure, a range Stop Hunt is basically confirmed. If you missed my last analysis (quoted below), I highly recommend checking it out first for better context on my current bias. First, let’s run it back to the key point: “the 80.5K liquidity grab.” For the past month-plus, I’ve been repeating in almost every post: 💬 “BTC needs to sweep 80.5K for a healthy bottom structure.” 💬 “Without clearing the liquidity below, the pump will always be capped.” Last night’s dump already tagged the “83.5K Equal Lows” I kept shouting about. Some of you might ask: “If the liquidity is at 83.5K, why target 80.5K?” It’s simple: 1️⃣ 83.5K is a liquidity cluster (Equal Lows), so price gets attracted there first. 2️⃣ After that, expect a breakdown below 83.5K, printing a new wick low. 3️⃣ That new wick low almost always lands near 80.5K, creating a new set of Equal Lows. This is why I keep emphasizing that “80.5K needs to be swept.” Once 83.5K breaks, regardless if we nuke straight down or see a short-term bounce, the new low will magnet liquidity around 80.5K, creating fresh downside gravity and making a sweep there highly probable ⚠️ I’ve been nagging about this in every post for a month—full transparency, all public, feel free to scroll back and check. // Zooming out, the last two months have basically been a textbook range. As the simple diagram on the right shows (check attached image), this is a classic range trading setup I’ve explained in detail before. If you want to study, check these two threads🔗: 📖 Q&A: Two Entry Methods in My Personal Perp Swing System x.com/market_beggar/status/194... 📖 RektProof Model CN & My Thoughts x.com/market_beggar/status/194... Quick recap of the model: ➡️ Dump → Bounce: that bounce low = Range Low ➡️ Bounce ends, price retraces: that high = Range High ➡️ If you Stop Hunt the Range High, target is Range Low (and vice versa) If you’re not familiar with Stop Hunts, I’ve written a full guide before—check it here👇: 📖 Why I Never Trade Breakouts: The Stop Hunt Trap x.com/market_beggar/status/190... // So, where are we now? 1️⃣ BTC’s chop is a textbook range—top side Stop Hunt is done. 2️⃣ Next up, target is the Range Low at 80.5K. 3️⃣ The liquidity map inside the range supports a sweep to 80.5K. TLDR: This is exactly as expected, and the move isn’t done yet‼️ BTC may keep ranging or bounce short-term, but with the current liquidity setup, odds are extremely high we’ll see 80.5K tapped. If you’re a student, worker, or just can’t be glued to the screen all day, my advice: focus on this big range, especially watch for signs of a Stop Hunt when price tags 80.5K⚠️ This strategy is more chill and forgiving, with less noise and less chance of getting chopped up during garbage hours. No matter which scenario plays out: ➡️ Scenario 1: 80.5K Stop Hunt ➡️ Scenario 2: 74K Stop Hunt ➡️ Or neither—deeper correction incoming You’ll be prepared and won’t get shaken out by volatility. As for monitoring Stop Hunts, I’ve shared this many times, but here’s a quick recap: 🔺 Structure: Break below + fast reclaim 🔺 Confirmation: Is the reclaim backed by strong taker activity? For the full logic, check this thread: 📖 How I Nailed ETH’s Two Mega Pumps via Liquidity x.com/market_beggar/status/195... // Today’s post is both a review and a forward outlook. I’m probably one of the few who keeps hammering on “liquidity magnet” risks. And with price action accelerating, I’m breaking my usual rule and dropping a second technical post this week—normally I’d never post two in a week 🥸 Price action is playing out exactly as forecasted. Hope my daily nagging helped some of you dodge risk. If you got rekt in this dump, feel free to drop a comment or join my group to chat. Let’s survive this together. That’s all for today—hope it helps 🫡 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3.26%
avatar
貝格先生🐢
01-29
Stage-Bottom Signal: The Bullish Divergence Pattern on RUP is Taking Shape 🌱 Following up on yesterday’s update (see quoted tweet below), let’s dive into some fresh signals emerging in the market—time to recharge the bulls’ faith! 🔋 Today, I want to spotlight an indicator I haven’t talked about in a while—the “100% top-escape win rate so far” RUP. For new followers, check out the tutorial series at the end of this thread. 📚 The charted indicator is RUP, short for Relative Unrealized Profit. It standardizes the total unrealized profit in the market by market cap, giving a clear read on the market’s overall profit status. 📊 I’ve featured this indicator multiple times during the 2025 top-hunting campaigns, both at the start of 2025 and in July. To date, “RUP divergence” has nailed every market top with a flawless 100% win rate.‼️ For those who want a deep dive, I’ve already written detailed guides on the concept, tutorials, and practical applications—links at the end of this thread. 🔗 Back to today’s topic—before going further, let’s quickly recap what “divergence” means. As shown in the attached chart, both 2025 market tops were successfully predicted by RUP divergence. The logic: “Price pushes higher, but RUP (profit status) fails to make new highs.” This signals that a large chunk of low-cost coins have already exited (aka “distribution”). In BTC markets, distribution by low-cost holders has always been a textbook top signal. ⚠️ Today, though, we’re looking at the opposite: Bullish Divergence 📈 Check the right side of the chart: “Price lows are rising, but RUP lows are dropping, forming a divergence.” This is what we call a bullish divergence, and the logic is simple: On-chain analysts often use “market profit status” to gauge market phases, tops, and bottoms—think AVIV, Realized Profit, etc. 🔬 ➡️ If profit multiples are too high, holders are more likely to sell—leading to a top. ➡️ If profit multiples are low, sidelined buyers are more likely to step in—setting up a bottom. Right now, the “RUP bullish divergence” in plain English means: “Price is higher, but profit status is lower = lighter bags, more room for upside.” ✅ Given current market conditions, if we get a proper stop hunt (see: x.com/market_beggar/status/201...…) and price prints a new local low, I’m convinced this—combined with the emerging RUP bullish divergence—has a high probability of marking a true golden bottom. 📈 💬 Extra note: If the stop hunt plays out and gets quickly bought up, we might see a new low—but RUP’s bullish divergence can still hold, since RUP is calculated based on closing price. That’s the alpha for today—hope this helps everyone out there! 🫡 // 📚 Further Reading (RUP Series Tutorials) Intro to RUPL & Bottom-Fishing Strategies x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… RUP Divergence Top-Escape Principle (with historical case studies) x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… Early 2025 Top-Escape: RUP Divergence Nails the Peak x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… October 2025 Top-Escape: RUP Divergence Pinpoints the Top Again x.com/market_beggar/status/197...… // 【Alpha Drop】 “Sitting on a stack of stablecoins but don’t feel like bottom-fishing right now? 💰” Here’s a solid yield play: Bitget Wallet On-Chain Earn ✅ Long-term APY = 10%, with yield sourced from AAVE + Bitget Wallet incentives ✅ Stablecoin (USDC) earn, as low as 1 USDC to start, flexible redemption anytime ✅ Transparent, no re-staking, no recursive lending, keeping risk low If you’re interested, you can sign up with my invite code below 👇 Invite Code: “3jTNi6” (manual binding required) twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
3.26%
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