#Is a bear coming?#
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Crypto Squirtle/机灵的杰尼君
Thanks to Decibel @DecibelTrade for the New Year's gift! This little yellow mascot is really cute; even in a bear market, having it on my desk cheers me up. Decibel, which we discussed before, appears to be a Perp DEX on Aptos @Aptos, but at a deeper level, it's actually building the long-missing trading infrastructure within the Aptos ecosystem—cramming perp, spot, vault, multi-asset collateral, unified margin, and clearing all into a fully on-chain trading engine. This design is clearly not for ordinary traders; it's more geared towards quantitative trading and institutional funds. This is precisely why Decibel chose Aptos—not because of its "ecosystem narrative," but because the parallel execution of the Move VM is indeed more suitable for handling large-volume transactions. If Aptos truly wants to take DeFi and Trading seriously, Decibel might be a good choice. The key is that it's still in testnet mode; interacting with it might bring good fortune! *** This does not constitute any investment advice; it is merely a personal record and opinion, and any profit or loss is the sole responsibility of the individual.
APT
2.41%
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TingHu♪
Personal record review and future plans: At the beginning of this decline, the price was still relatively high. At that time, Mr. Yi's liquidation price was around 1800. Initially, the view was that the probability of Mr. Yi being liquidated was very low; he would add margin and could also stop loss. Therefore, the plan was to take advantage of his broken resolve and market panic selling to profit from the price drop. Later, things did indeed unfold according to the script. He added margin and continuously reduced his position through stop-loss orders, leading to a panic sell-off… Unfortunately, I mainly held spot positions and didn't short, so I missed out on this huge profit. Also, I had originally planned to buy Bitcoin at 60,000, and Yi also lowered the liquidation price, but because the drop was too rapid (exceeding expectations), there were very clear signs that it was heading towards liquidating Yi. Once liquidated, the entire market would be dragged down. So, I thought I'd just wait for the liquidation and make a big profit, because this kind of continuous decline followed by liquidation has a high probability of a V-shaped reversal, with substantial gains! But in the end, he stopped just before he could slit Yi's throat; the knife stopped right there, and the "man in black" walked away smiling. Unfortunately, the rapid rebound after the sell-off wasn't the time to monitor the market (without the expectation of a major liquidation, one tends to place orders on the left side; this habit of chasing the sell-off on the right side is more prudent in a bear market), and I regretfully missed the lowest point for short-term buy the dips. By the time it recovered, it had already rebounded by more than ten points, right in a consolidation range. The plan remains the same: to trade within this range for a period of time, and then, once many people have relaxed or there is a certain probability of a bull market pullback (when people don't believe in the bear market), to leave again and wait for the bottom or the next opportunity to make some money. twitter.com/TingHu888/status/2...
BTC
2.3%
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Murphy
Yili Hua has fully liquidated his positions. As one of the biggest Ethereum bulls this cycle, he exits the stage with a staggering loss of around -$734 million. Honestly, it’s pretty heartbreaking… I originally thought he was just de-risking and reducing leverage, but it turns out he sold off his spot holdings too. I remember on December 30, 2025, I analyzed “when ETH is worth bottom-fishing” from four angles: sentiment, structure, cost, and overall score. Basically, when LTH-NUPL < 0, PSIP < 50%, price is below whale average cost, and market composite score < 1 — at least 2 out of these 4 conditions need to be met to start building a position; 3 or more, and you can consider scaling up. Back then, none of these conditions were met, so IMO, $2,950 ETH wasn’t worth buying. But Boss Yi’s fund, Trend Research, went all-in, completely opposite to my view. Hard to imagine institutions taking on that much risk. Fast forward to now, looking at these 4 charts: (Chart 1) 1. LTH-NUPL = 0.1; not met, but just one step away from dropping below zero. (Chart 2) 2. PSIP = 39.9%; met. The current percent of profitable supply is even lower than the lowest points in April 2025 and June 2022. (Chart 3) 3. Price is below the average cost of the 3 main whale cohorts ($2,051, $2,198, $2,392); met. (Chart 4) 4. Market composite score = 1; not <1, but already in the bottom range. So, if I had to rate ETH right now, I’d say “buy in batches (spot),” not “full liquidation”—once again, my view is the exact opposite of Boss Yi’s trade. Whether I’m right or wrong, only time will tell. Boss Yi nailed the ETH bottom in April 2025, and the timing matched all four criteria perfectly. But this time, with almost the same composite score, he chose to exit. Maybe the massive losses messed with his head, or maybe it’s just financial pressure. Either way, the outcome is really regrettable… ---------------------------------------------- For educational purposes only, not investment advice! twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...
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