虽然当季和次季度期货的交易量很小了，但溢价指标我认为依旧可以参考一下（仅仅针对大趋势，而非短线）。目前溢价虽然很小了，但依旧是正溢价（高于现货价格），18年底和22年底都出现过很高的负溢价（低于现货价格），并且维持过一段时间，一直到确定脱离熊市底部之后才回到正溢价。

大家知道我18年底在哪爆仓的吗？第二个椭圆型区域，当时还是玩的币本位期货，不是现在的永续合约，币安当时也不做合约。然后OK的期货价格跌的远低于现货，老韭菜应该有印象吧？想来，现在都没什么人玩币本位期货了…
我当时是按照现货布局走的，加上3000多抄底觉得挺稳的，就想多赚一些，就上杠杆了。  x.com/TingHu888/stat…

TingHu♪

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Although trading volume in futures for the current and next quarters is small, I believe the premium indicator is still worth considering (only for the overall trend, not the short term). Currently, although the premium is small, it is still a positive premium (higher than the spot price). At the end of 2018 and the end of 2022, there were very high negative premiums (lower than the spot price), which persisted for a period of time until the market bottom was confirmed before returning to a positive premium.

Bitcoin's price briefly touched $60,000 last week. Under a diminishing returns model, this is no mere noise. The market is touching the weakest link in the entire four-year cycle and logarithmic growth framework.

With the gains at the top of the Bitcoin cycle already significantly compressed, a further historically deep correction would completely negate the allure of its classic cycles.

This is not a prediction; it's a mathematical law.

Cycle Top Gains are Compressing

Historical Bitcoin Cycle Tops:

· 2013: ~$1,242

· 2017: ~$19,700

· 2021: ~...

$55,000 will be the lifeline for Bitcoin.

The government has just issued Resolution No. 23/NQ-CP following the regular government meeting in January 2026, which emphasizes the requirement for proactive, flexible, and effective monetary policy management, with close coordination...

The Vietnamese government is pushing for the operation of a gold and cryptocurrency exchange by February 28, 2026.

The crypto market experienced a sharp drop this afternoon, with Ethereum falling below the $2,000 mark at 3 PM Taiwan time, according to Hyperliquid [...]
The article, titled "Machi Big Brother Suffers Huge Losses and Didn't Sleep All Night? Ethereum Falls Below 2000 Magnesium, Panic Arrives, Opens Long BlockTempo and Loses 120,000 Magnesium," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Machi Big Brother lost so much money he couldn't sleep all night? Ethereum fell below 2000, causing panic. He long positions in ETH and HYPE, then sold at a loss, losing all 120,000 in magnesium.

随着期货交割时间的临近，溢价通常会被抹除，这也是一部分人套利的玩法，以前套利的利润还可以的，但现在玩永续的多了，期货都没什么人玩了，套利玩法又不一样了。负溢价最大的时候，也是反向套利最爽的时候。

As the futures delivery date approaches, the premium is usually eliminated, which is a common arbitrage opportunity for some. Arbitrage used to be quite profitable, but now with more people trading perpetual contracts, futures trading is less popular, and arbitrage strategies have changed. The period of maximum negative premium is also when reverse arbitrage is most profitable.