While volatility is price-agnostic, recent flows in the options market suggest bullish expectations.

<div><div><div><ul><li><div>The tight presidential race means the election could move BTC by $6,000 to $8,000, Amberdata's Greg Magadini estimates.</div></li><li><div>DEX traders anticipate a bigger swing in ether.</div></li><li><div>Market participants position for bullish volatility.</div></li></ul></div></div><div><div><div></div><div></div><div></div></div></div><div><div><p>Crypto traders awaiting a surge in bitcoin <a href="https://coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/" title="Bitcoin Price | BTC Price Index and Live Chart - CoinDesk" rel="nofollow">(BTC)</a> price volatility may soon have it their way as derivatives experts suggest the impending U.S. presidential election could trigger price swings matching the dramatic movements of early August.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>"I expect a +1.5-Sigma ($6,000 to $8,000 price range) as a result of the post-election price reaction," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at crypto data tracking platform Amberdata, told CoinDesk.</p></div></div><div><div><p>The projection is based on the annualized forward volatility of 112% derived from the Nov. 6 options trading on Deribit, which suggests a price fluctuation of $4,000 in either direction. A positive 1.5-sigma of that translates to a price swing in the range of $6,000 to $8,000.</p></div></div><div><div><p>Bitcoin last saw a similar price swing in early August when the unwinding of the so-called risk-on yen carry traders led to broad-based risk aversion, sending BTC down to $50,000.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>Magadini assumes 1.5-sigma volatility because the <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/world/us-election-2024/story/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-race-close-fight-polls-campaign-swing-states-2627528-2024-11-04" rel="nofollow">latest reports</a> show Republican candidate Donald Trump, perceived to be crypto-friendly, and his rival Democrat Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race in seven swing states.</p></div></div><div><div><p>The 50-50 odds indicate that an eventual outcome is unlikely to surprise markets, irrespective of who wins, implying a low probability of a positive 3-sigma move (three standard deviations from the mean in a normal distribution) looks unlikely. A positive 3-sigma move indicates an extreme event.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>Similarly, a sub negative 1-sigma move or minimal price action looks doubtful, as 50-50 odds mean traders won't be able to price the election outcome in advance. The election is due Tuesday, with results expected on Friday.</p></div></div><div><div><p>Recall that volatility is bi-directional, meaning expected price swings could happen in either direction. That said, options traders have been preparing for bullish volatility, purchasing calls at $70,000, $85,000, and $90,000 strikes on Deribit and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. (A $8,000 surge from BTC going market rate of $68,800 would mean new record highs.)</p></div></div><div><div><p>As such, call options are trading pricier than puts in terms of volatility in a sign of bullish sentiment, according to Joshua Lim, co-founder of crypto derivatives trading firm and liquidity provider Arbelos Markets.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>"Bitcoin call options are repricing higher, even while spot price ticks lower this weekend due to surprisingly weak polls for Trump," Lim said.</p></div></div><div><div><p>Lim added that the volatility curve is pricing a 7%-8% move around critical events of the week, mainly Thursday's Fed rate decision and the expected U.S. election outcome on Friday.</p></div></div><div><div><h2>DEX traders see greater volatility in ETH</h2></div></div><div><div><p>Ether <a href="https://coindesk.com/price/ethereum/" title="Ethereum Price | ETH Price Index and Live Chart - CoinDesk" rel="nofollow">(ETH)</a>, the native token of Ethereum's blockchain and the world's second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, has historically been more volatile than BTC. That's unlikely to change with the U.S. election.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>According to onchain options listed on decentralized exchange Derive, there is a 68% chance of ETH chalking out a 9.35% to 10.19% price swing, with BTC expected to see volatility ranging between 8.97% to 9.85%. A 10% volatility in ETH means a $247 move at the going market rate of $2,470, and a 10% move in BTC implies a $6,800 swing.</p></div></div><div><div><p>DEX traders are anticipating bullish volatility as well. As of Sunday, the total call option open interest stood at 1,179 contracts versus 885 open put option contracts, a sign of bullish inclination.</p></div></div><div><div><p>"As the election nears, these figures are crucial for traders looking to navigate the heightened uncertainty in the crypto markets. It's a pivotal moment for onchain options trading, demonstrating the sophisticated strategies traders are employing to hedge against or capitalize on expected volatility," Nick Forster, founder of Derive, told CoinDesk.</p></div></div><div><p>Edited by Parikshit Mishra.</p></div></div>

Bitcoin Set for $6K-$8K Seesaw as U.S. Elections Enters Final Stretch: Analyst

Mặc dù biến động không phụ thuộc vào giá cả, các dòng chảy gần đây trong thị trường tùy chọn cho thấy kỳ vọng <Bull>.
Các từ sau đây không được dịch:
<Bull>
<AR>
<ICE>
<OP>
<AR>
<GNO>

Cuộc đua tổng thống căng thẳng có nghĩa là cuộc bầu cử có thể làm BTC tăng từ 6.000 USD đến 8.000 USD, ước tính của Greg Magadini từ Amberdata.

Các nhà giao dịch DEX dự kiến sẽ có biến động lớn hơn với Ether.

Các tham gia thị trường định vị cho sự biến động tăng.

Bitcoin được thiết lập ở mức 6.000-8.000 đô la khi cuộc bầu cử ở Hoa Kỳ bước vào giai đoạn cuối: Nhà phân tích

Người dùng <Polymarket> và <Kalshi> đang đối phó với những rủi ro của <Donald Trump>, với <Bit> giảm xuống dưới $68,000 và <Thanh khoản> tích lũy.

Bitcoin trượt dốc khi tỷ lệ cược của Trump giảm mạnh, đẩy giá trị thanh lý tiền điện tử lên trên 315 triệu đô la

Elon Musk đăng nhiều bài tweet vào Chủ Nhật, lên án hành động của DEC và kích hoạt một cơn sốt mua điên cuồng đồng tiền meme PNUT.
'MEME' phải được dịch thành 'MEME'.
'Ren' phải được dịch thành 'Ren'.
'meme' phải được dịch thành 'meme'.

Pnut là gì? Đồng xu meme nhảy theo giai điệu của Elon Musk

Giá <Pepe> đang chịu áp lực gần đây, khó duy trì được mức đỡ ở $0.00001000, đây từng là mức hỗ trợ quan trọng. Sự thất bại này đã làm gia tăng tâm lý giảm giá xung quanh <rug> <AR> <ENS> <PEPE> và <Rug> của <ICE>.