Bitcoin’s rise rate is unusual. Bitcoin price rose 11.22% over the past week, at one point exceeding the $68,000 level. This is the first time that the Bitcoin price has risen to this level since June 13th.
As I mentioned earlier in the weekly briefing over the past few weeks, one of the most important points in the current market is whether Bitcoin can secure upward momentum. Crypto analysis companies analyzed that this momentum was largely recovered during the recovery after falling to $53,000 on July 4th.
First of all, it is the U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market that serves as a basic support. In July (as of 7/20), a net inflow of $2 billion was recorded in one month .
In particular , on the 16th, the Mt. Gox bond redemption volume moved again, causing panic in the market, but over the next three days , $1 billion worth of funds flowed into major ETFs such as Blackrock, maintaining prices.
Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase predicted through its own research that the price of Bitcoin would form a box range at the current level and move sideways in the third quarter before starting to rise in earnest in the fourth quarter . The view is that the possibility of further decline is limited.
There are also analyzes predicting an active bull market. Sentiment, a cryptocurrency online data platform, recently explained that there has been a significant change of hands among market holders, with the number of wallets holding Bitcoin decreasing by more than 670,000 . The number of new holders has decreased over the past month, but the price has remained the same, which means that favorable conditions for an increase have been established. K33 pointed out in research on the 17th that momentum has recovered and that investors' short positions currently accumulated on cryptocurrency exchanges could serve as the basis for further rises .
Bitcoin heading to all-time high... It's up to Trump
Bitcoin price has seen a steep rise over the past two weeks. Is there any possibility of it rising further from here? Experts cautiously point to the ‘Trump effect’. The reason it rose from $58,000 two weeks ago to $63,000 at once was the news of the failed assassination of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump , so the logic is that a further rise is possible as his victory in the presidential election becomes more certain.
Senator JD Vance, whom candidate Trump nominated as a vice presidential candidate on the 16th, is also considered a positive factor. Vance is a person who has supported pro-cryptocurrency legislation, and recently attracted attention by criticizing the regulatory approach of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler. He also has a history of reporting Bitcoin holdings worth more than $100,000 in his 2022 asset report.
Expectations rise after Trump's speech at Bitcoin conference
There are two very important events scheduled this week. One is that an Ethereum spot ETF will be launched in the US market. The release schedule is the 23rd (local time) .
There are positive predictions in some quarters that the price of Ethereum, currently around $3,470, could exceed $5,000 after the launch of the ETF . Of course, on the other hand, there is also the prospect that there will be a price adjustment of more than 10% immediately after launch, like the Bitcoin spot ETF.
Another event is Trump's cryptocurrency-related speech scheduled for July 25th (local time). Candidate Trump is scheduled to attend the Bitcoin conference held in Nashville today and speak as a speaker .
The industry expects that he may make unconventional remarks at this event, such as specific cryptocurrency promotion measures that have not been mentioned so far or treating Bitcoin as a strategic asset at the U.S. level. Conversely, if no special remarks are made, the Bitcoin price, which has risen sharply, is likely to adjust due to disappointment.
There is another variable here. Bitcoin for Mt. Gox bond redemption was transferred to the cryptocurrency Kraken last week. Kraken has announced that it will distribute these Bitcoins to general creditors within 7 to 14 days . Although the exact date and time have not yet been determined, if the distribution is completed this week, it is likely to place a significant burden on the market. There are days when prices are particularly difficult to predict. We wish our readers successful investments this week.
