About U.S. stocks and macroeconomics:
The theme of funds switching from cyclical to defensive has been the theme of the past few months. In the most recent earnings season, the profit growth rate of defensive industry companies has surpassed that of cyclical industries, which has verified the judgment of previous investors. This switching theme is expected to continue...
Usually when the economy weakens and market yields decrease, defensive stocks will outperform. Cyclical stocks are still relatively expensive and have room for further adjustment.
The blue line is the futures market interest rate expectations, and the gap between the stock market and the trend reflects that although the stock market is currently strong, the expectations of the futures market show concerns about economic growth. Generally, such a gap may indicate that the market may face adjustments in the future, because the optimism in the stock market may not be sustainable, especially in the face of a potential economic slowdown, peak profit margins, and slowing revenue growth. 
About the crypto:
I think in addition to macro liquidity, another very important factor is the growth narrative of the crypto itself. We invest in something not because it is cheap, nor because others buy it, but because it has the ability to "accelerate value creation". Every round of new highs has a new narrative that arouses everyone's imagination.
Don’t be obsessed with interest rate cuts. Dongda cuts interest rates every day, but has the A-share market risen? There still needs to be a new narrative at the application layer.
The recent decline in US stocks is because investors don't want to play before the election. There is no reason. Fund managers don't know that the US economy is doing well now? The service industry PMI has been expanding. Although the manufacturing industry is not doing well, the manufacturing industry has always been poor. And how many talents are there in the US manufacturing industry? 10 to 20 million people. The employment in the service industry is ten times that of the manufacturing industry.
You can see that NV and Broadcom, which just released yesterday, both had very good results, but they still fell sharply, which shows that this kind of fall has little to do with the macro and micro levels. Is it because the leverage was too high before or something? Although it is possible to assume that there is a recession, in general, now they are running away without considering the fundamentals.
