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Consumption growth and population growth have a strong positive correlation. The slowdown in immigration is bound to be a concern for the future economy. However, the good news is that capital investment accompanying immigration has a lag effect. A larger population size requires more housing, infrastructure and equipment, which in turn promotes increased investment. In the next few years, capital expenditures in high-income countries are expected to increase significantly, which in turn will become an important driving force for economic growth.
Statistically, we can see that population growth has a low correlation with investment. This suggests that despite significant population growth, capital expenditures (such as infrastructure and equipment investment) have not grown rapidly, suggesting that there may be a "catch-up effect" in capital expenditures in the future.
In terms of population, the United States and the European Union are the regions with the largest net inflow of immigrants in the world. In contrast, India and China are the countries with the largest net outflow of immigrants in the world.
New Zealand, Australia, Canada and Sweden are the countries with the largest net immigrant inflows in proportion to their population. The data shows that immigration flows to these countries account for 0.8 percentage points of total population growth each year. In comparison, the United States and the European Union account for 0.4 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points respectively.
The Philippines, Mexico and Poland are the countries with the largest net immigrant outflows, and these countries have significant labor force losses.
The blue line in the figure below is the percentage share of immigrants in GDP growth in developed countries, showing that the contribution of immigrants to economic growth has become more important (the recent abnormal fluctuations are mainly due to the stagnation of population mobility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic)
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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