Chainfeeds Introduction:
Unlike the previous bull market driven by macroeconomic prosperity, this round of crypto market is mainly affected by macroeconomic uncertainty. In addition, ETF is just an "ibuprofen sustained-release capsule", and the trend of crypto-stock USization has become a constraint on the industry's growth potential.
Source:
https://medium.com/ybbcapital/stagnation-bubble-crisis-breakthrough-e123966e4f73
Article author:
YBB Capital
Viewpoint:
YBB Capital: Bitcoin was born in the context of the global economic crisis, probably to counter the excessive issuance of national fiat currencies and monetary policy intervention. From the historical development of Bitcoin, before China's widespread ban on Bitcoin in 2021, China was the main force driving the growth of the industry, and its mining industry once accounted for two-thirds of the global total. At the same time, the global economy experienced significant growth, especially the boom in real estate and the Internet. However, after 2020, the cooling of the real estate industry and the slowdown of the global economy led to a decrease in market liquidity, and many markets lost the motivation for capital injection. From the perspective of innovation, DeFi Summer made the economic cycle within Ethereum the main driving force for its explosive growth. Subsequently, concepts such as NFT, MEME and GameFi also attracted a lot of resources, and even triggered a craze for digital collectibles. But this time, the industry's innovations are mostly repackaging of old ideas, and the new narrative has not had a significant impact, which may be one of the reasons why the bull market has not yet arrived. To this day, the US dollar still controls the global economy through its pricing power. Gold, regarded as a safe-haven asset, has set new highs many times in major crises in history. The first gold bull market began with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after World War II, the decoupling of the United States from gold, and geopolitical tensions and inflation as driving forces. The second bull market began in 2005. After the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, a large amount of investment capital fled to gold for safe havens. The bull market reached its climax at the end of the Libyan War in 2011. The third bull market ushered in a turning point in 2018. The global COVID-19 pandemic and the central bank's liquidity injection became key driving forces, and geopolitical conflicts once again became the main factor. Gold has always been the first choice for hedging risks, especially during periods of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, when gold prices tend to rise. However, as gold soared, the price of Bitcoin did not follow the rise, but instead moved closer to the trend of US stocks. This shows that gold's position as a safe haven asset remains solid, while Bitcoin has not shown the same performance in this regard. Despite this, Bitcoin's greatest value is still reflected in its use as a tool to combat economic sanctions and lack of trust in fiat currencies. For example, El Salvador adopted a dual fiat currency to promote the use of Bitcoin, thereby weakening the influence of the US dollar. In September 2024, Russia began allowing residents to use cryptocurrencies for trade settlements to circumvent sanctions. As Bitcoin continues to develop, the introduction of ETFs is seen as an inevitable driving force. However, the anti-authority, pro-freedom and decentralization beliefs of the crypto community have gradually evolved into expectations of authority. The market continues to cheer the news of ETFs, hoping to bring exit liquidity through more capital injections. In fact, the crypto community has gradually dedicated the fruits of its labor to the same authority from its initial resistance to authority. The introduction of ETFs has directly affected prices and further aligned with traditional financial markets. Those who hold the most tokens will have the greatest influence, and the United States is gradually gaining ideological control in the crypto industry. According to a report by QCP Capital on September 10, 2024, macroeconomic uncertainty continues to dominate the crypto market, and the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the MSCI Global Equity Index has reached 0.6, the highest in nearly two years. [Original text in English]
Content Sources 
