QCPCapital最新分析指出，美联储会议纪要显示立场不如预期鸽派，加上上周五强劲的就业数据，市场对11月降息25个基点的预期概率从上周的67.9%上升至83.7%。今晚的CPI和明天的PPI数据将成为本周关键风险事件。尽管美股指数昨晚上涨，标普500指数创下新高，但加密货币市场未见同样乐观，可能受到丝绸之路比特币和PlusToken以太坊抛售消息的影响。QCP表示，只要6万美元关键支撑位保持完...

<p>QCPCapital最新分析指出，美联储会议纪要显示立场不如预期鸽派，加上上周五强劲的就业数据，市场对11月降息25个基点的预期概率从上周的67.9%上升至83.7%。今晚的CPI和明天的PPI数据将成为本周关键风险事件。尽管美股指数昨晚上涨，标普500指数创下新高，但加密货币市场未见同样乐观，可能受到丝绸之路比特币和PlusToken以太坊抛售消息的影响。QCP表示，只要6万美元关键支撑位保持完整，仍对“十月上涨”持乐观态度。QCP建议，鉴于市场预期未来将有更多降息，投资者可考虑在当前低迷的现货水平锁定收益，并为年底反弹做好准备。</p>

QCP Capital：CPI和PPI数据将成本周关键风险事件

QCPCapital's latest analysis points out that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show a less dovish stance than expected, and the strong employment data last Friday has increased the market's expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November from 67.9% last week to 83.7%. The CPI data tonight and the PPI data tomorrow will be the key risk events this week. Although the US stock indexes rose last night and the S&P 500 index hit a new high, the cryptocurrency market did not see the same optimism, possibly affected by the news of the Silk Road Bitcoin and PlusToken Ethereum selloff. QCP said that as long as the $60,000 key support level is maintained...

According to the latest analysis by QCPCapital, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed a less dovish stance than expected, and the strong employment data last Friday has increased the market's expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November from 67.9% last week to 83.7%. The CPI data tonight and the PPI data tomorrow will be the key risk events this week. Although the US stock indices rose last night, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new high, the cryptocurrency market has not seen the same optimism, possibly affected by the news of the Silk Road Bitcoin and PlusToken Ethereum selloff. QCP stated that as long as the $60,000 key support level remains intact, they remain optimistic about the "October rally". QCP suggests that given the market's expectation of further rate cuts, investors may consider locking in profits at the current depressed spot levels and prepare for a year-end rebound.

QCP Capital: CPI and PPI data will be key risk events this week

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The US dollar rose ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points last month, and the latest meeting minutes may provide clues to the next policy measures. <Chris Turner>, an analyst at <ING>, said in a report that "the market has already priced in about 30 basis points of the Fed's easing cycle in 2024 over the past few weeks, but we also suspect that investors may not be in the mood to reprice the Fed's aggressive easing cycle." He also said that the CPI data on Thursday may show that the US core inflation rate in September is still relatively high, which may provide support for the US dollar. (Gold Ten)

Analysis: Thursday's CPI data could support the dollar

According to the Odaily Planet Daily Report, UBS economist Brian Rose stated in a report last Friday that the CPI in September will be a key data point. If the rate of price increases is faster than expected, combined with strong labor data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve remaining unchanged at the November meeting will increase. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has fallen from 33% to zero after the release of the September employment report, and traders are not even fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut. Therefore, the CPI reading on Thursday has become more important for the Federal Reserve's next move.

UBS: If CPI data does not meet expectations, the possibility of the Fed staying on hold will increase

ChainCatcher reported that QCP Capital stated that the Chinese stock market continued to decline today, with the China A50 index falling another 7%, down 17% from its recent high. The lack of fiscal stimulus measures has severely dampened investor sentiment. However, the US stock market has not been affected by the developments in the Asian situation. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the US election and the exclusion of rate cut expectations for 2024 after the non-farm employment report, the US stock market continues to rise to new highs. The bond market currently expects two rate cuts in 2024, whereas just a week ago, it was expected to have three rate cuts. Despite the turmoil in the Middle East and the growing domestic challenges related to the US election, the US stock market has continued to steadily rise, further reinforcing the view that risk assets are about to rebound. In the cryptocurrency market, the MEME coin market has been soaring with the increase in on-chain and off-chain trading activities. Traders have been heavily speculating and leveraging the latest popular MEME coins, leading to some bubbles in the market. Over the past two weeks, the perpetual contract funding rates on exchanges like Deribit and Binance have also risen, indicating that short positions are being reduced or long positions are increasing. This, along with the bubble in the MEME coin market, makes it cautious about the potential for a downward trend, as this often occurs when the market is bullish and investors are most vulnerable. Even in the face of short-term uncertainty and declines, we still plan to continue accumulating, with a bullish medium-term outlook.