Weekly Review
This week from November 11 to November 17, the highest price of BTC was around $93,265, the lowest was close to $80,216, and the fluctuation range was about 16.27%.
Observing the distribution of chips, there is a large amount of chip trading around 86,000, which will have a certain support or pressure.
• Analysis:
1. 69,000-73,000 about 466,700 pieces;
2. 74,000-78,000 about 88,700 pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not breaking through 95,000~100,000 in the short term is 60%.
Important News
Economic News
1. The 13F filing of the US Securities and Exchange Commission shows that the asset management giant BlackRock continued to increase its holdings of the seven major US tech stocks in the third quarter, including increasing its holdings of Apple by 43.4 million shares, Microsoft by 7.5 million shares, and Nvidia by 12.35 million shares. It also increased its holdings of Berkshire Hathaway by 2.59 million shares. BlackRock's reported portfolio value is $4.76 trillion, up from $4.42 trillion last time.
2. After last week's CPI and PPI inflation indicators slightly exceeded expectations, Powell said the economy has not "sent any signal" that the Fed needs to cut rates urgently, allowing members to "carefully" pursue further adjustments.
3. Fed Governor Goolsbee: As long as inflation continues to move towards the 2% target, interest rates will be much lower in the next 12 to 18 months than they are now.
4. Fed Governor Collins: A rate cut in December is clearly under consideration, but he does not believe there is an urgent need to cut rates.
5. The Fed shows a hawkish stance, and traders have reduced the probability of a rate cut in December to 61.9%, with a 38.1% probability of keeping rates unchanged.
6. Morgan Stanley economists forecast that by the mid-2025s, the US 10-year Treasury yield will fall to 3.75%, slightly above 3.50% by the end of next year, and the Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points (to 3.5-3.75%) in the first half of 2025.
Crypto Ecosystem News
1. Morgan Stanley analysts outlined six key regulatory and market changes in the crypto industry under the Trump administration that could reshape the US crypto landscape, and several stalled crypto bills could be quickly approved.
2. Clearer regulation may increase venture capital, mergers and acquisitions, and initial public offerings in the crypto space, and strategic BTC reserves could push up BTC prices, but the likelihood is relatively low.
3. US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to introduce a bill next year when the new Congress takes office that would require the US to purchase 1 million BTC, aiming to fill the strategic BTC stockpile proposed by Trump without increasing the federal deficit, which would cost about $90 billion at current market prices, but the required amount may increase if the bill is passed.
4. Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced that it will issue 1.75 billion yen in ordinary bonds to purchase BTC, and the company currently holds 1,018.17 BTC.
5. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor launched a poll on the X platform, "Will BTC break $100,000 before the new year?", and currently 58,608 users have voted, with an approval rate of 85.2%.
6. Decrypt reported that on November 17, CB ranked 1st in the free finance category of the US Apple iOS App Store, up from 26th on election day. Robinhood and Cryptocom also jumped to the top 10 in the same category.
7. CryptoQuant analyst MAC.D said that in just 10 months, the holdings of US BTC spot ETFs have increased from 629,900 BTC to 1,054,500 BTC, accounting for 5.33% of the total supply. The increase in spot ETF holdings is strongly correlated with the price, and if the US uses BTC as a reserve asset in the future, the amount flowing into spot ETFs will continue to increase.
8. QCP Capital believes that the potential strength of BTC represents a systemic shift in the market's expectations of Trump's return to the White House, and a target price of $100,000 to $120,000 may not be far away. The idea of Trump launching a strategic BTC reserve and rotating from gold to BTC provides a strong bullish view that can support BTC prices.
Long-term Insights: For observing our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Medium-term Exploration: For analyzing what stage we are currently in, how long it will last, and what situations we may face
Short-term Observation: For analyzing the short-term market conditions; as well as the probability of some direction and the occurrence of certain events under certain premises
Long-term Insights
• Changes in ETF reserves
• Large exchange net transfers
• Long-term holder structure
• Changes in long-term and short-term participant holdings
The change in ETF size shows that the intensity of external capital inflows has begun to decline. New inflows have started to decline relatively.
Exchange fund flows show that large participants are still generating relatively more purchases. Internal forces remain relatively strong.
The structure of long-term participants shows that the proportion of long-term participants is further declining, and when the proportion of long-term participants is too low, it can lead to great risks in the market.
There is still a certain distance from the overly low state at the time. The structural support is still relatively complete.
The proportion of long-term participants is declining, and the proportion of short-term participants is relatively increasing. It is worth mentioning that when the proportion of long-term participants drops significantly, and the short-term participants switch from rising to falling, and the long-term participants cannot support more market structure before a certain amount, it may lead to the possibility of further market collapse.
Medium-term Exploration
• BTC exchange net position change
• ETH exchange net position change
• ETH exchange circulating ratio
• Incremental model
• Liquidity supply
• Cost structure
BTC still has a relatively large outflow, and the on-chain is maintaining a relatively accumulative state. The current BTC may still have relatively strong demand, with relatively more outflows, and may face relatively lighter potential selling pressure.
ETH currently has a relatively large inflow, and the current pattern and potential pressure in the market may be concentrated on the ETH side.
The change rate of ETH's circulating ratio has shown a slight slowdown in decline, and the sentiment in the market may also be hesitant. If the ETH circulating ratio is switched to a higher state, the risk appetite in the market may be higher.
The increment is still in continuous upward trend, and the supply of short-term participants is still in an upward channel. The market may currently be judged as an incremental market.
The liquidity supply in the market has risen again, and the participants may still have a certain heat.
The liquidity supply can improve the efficiency of chip exchange in the market.
From the cost structure, the market is in the incremental stage, and the overall market is expanding.
The stock top has increased from 73,500 to around 90,000 now, and the market's ability to accommodate profitability is stronger.
At the same time, the short-term cost is currently around 70,000, and the price level to reach the Alpha yield in the short term is around 88,000.
The current increment is distorting the market structure, causing the cost structure to change constantly.
The position above 88,000-90,000 may be the high position that needs to be cautiously monitored at present.
Short-term Observation
• Derivative risk factor
• Option trading volume ratio
• Derivative trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• BTC exchange net position
• ETH exchange net position
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net position
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivative rating: The risk factor is in the red zone, and the derivative risk is increasing.
From the perspective of clearing volume, the fluctuation after the market reached a high point has not consumed too much of the long position's intention. But the potential liquidation risk is increasing.
The put-call ratio is at a high level, and the trading volume is at a low level.
The decline of derivatives to a low level means that the next volatility may not be far away.
The implied volatility of options has not changed much.
Sentiment rating: Greed
The positive attributes of the market are at a new high for the year, but the positive sentiment of the market has declined slightly after the high point, but the market has not fallen rapidly while declining, which indirectly confirms that there are still many buy orders in the short term.
New and active addresses are at an extremely high level.
Spot and selling pressure rating: BTC and ETH are differentiated, BTC is accumulating outflows, and ETH is accumulating inflows.
BTC is accumulating outflows.
ETH is accumulating inflows.
Some long-term holders have sold, and the situation has eased to some extent.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded significantly, and stablecoin purchasing power has rebounded significantly.
Global purchasing power is steadily rebounding.
Stablecoin purchasing power has rebounded significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a buying intention at around 85,000; there is a selling intention at around 95,000.
There is a buying intention around 80,000 and 85,000;
There is a selling intention around 95,000 to 98,000.
There is a buying intention around 74,000 to 80,000, and 84,000 to 88,000;
There is a selling intention around 92,000 to 95,000.
There is a buying intention around 84,000 and 75,000;
This Week's Summary
News Summary:
1. From a historical review, the fourth quarter generally has a better market, especially in the post-halving stage, with a similar feel to the end of 2020.
2. In the context of the Fed's rate cuts, the decline in US bond yields, and the rise in US stocks, the rate cuts are expected to continue until mid-next year.
3. That is, the bull market can last until the middle of next year.
Long-term On-chain Insights:
1. The enthusiasm of ETF funds has begun to decline slightly;
2. Large exchange net transfers are still in large outflows, and the buying intention of whales is still there;
3. The proportion of long-term participants is decreasing;
4. Short-term participants are taking over the chips.
• Market positioning: External funds seem to have a slight downward trend, and internal buying is still strong.
Medium-term On-chain Exploration:
1. BTC demand is still relatively large, and potential selling pressure is relatively low;
2. ETH has accumulated a small amount of potential selling pressure, and its volatility may be greater;
3. The on-chain sentiment is still fluctuating, and it is currently in the medium-risk stage (between high and low);
4. There is still an increment on-chain;
5. The liquidity supply is still rising;
6. The position above 88,000-90,000 needs to be treated cautiously.
• Market positioning:
Growth, risk
There is still an increment on-chain, and it is in the medium-risk stage. From the perspective of coping, the position above 88,000-90,000 needs to be treated cautiously.
Short-term On-chain Observation:
1. The risk factor is in the red zone, and the derivative risk is increasing.
2. The new and active addresses are at an extremely high level, and the market is very active.
3. Market sentiment rating: Greed.
4. The exchange net position is showing a differentiated state, with relatively high selling pressure on ETH.
5. Global purchasing power has rebounded significantly, and stablecoin purchasing power has rebounded significantly.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a buying intention around 85,000 and a selling intention around 95,000.
7. The probability of not breaking below 71,000 to 74,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability of not breaking through 95,000 to 100,000 in the short term is 60%.
• Market positioning:
In the short term, BTC is still in a strong low position, and the selling pressure on the ETH market will continue to affect the exchange rate.
The market is brewing short-term volatility, which may have a slight pullback to liquidate derivatives, but the positive sentiment of the market is still high, and the probability of a major decline is very low.
Risk Warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please treat them cautiously and prevent the risk of black swan events in the market.
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