The following text is compiled from the Twitter Space series #Dialogue with Traders, hosted by FC, founding partner of SevenX Ventures, Twitter @FC_0X 0
Guest for this episode: SaBiBro, founder of CashCashBot, Twitter @SaBiBro 666
SaBiBro's Trading Journey: From Exchanges to On-chain Strategy Transformation
SaBiBro, a pioneer in the field of on-chain data-driven trading. Born in Taiwan, he entered the cryptocurrency industry in 2017 and joined a mainland exchange in 2019, working in the listing department, focusing on on-chain data analysis and project due diligence (DD). This experience has given him a deep industry understanding and laid a solid foundation for data analysis.
In 2022, he chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. Initially, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the NFT market gradually cooled down, he quickly observed the rise of Memecoins trading and promptly adjusted his strategy, concentrating on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team have developed various analysis tools and trading bots to monitor the movements of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.
SaBiBro's trading strategy has distinct characteristics: it does not focus on narrative valuation, but rather on on-chain monitoring and strict profit-taking and stop-loss rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear profit-taking and stop-loss strategies, trading can be freed from the interference of subjective emotions.
At the same time, he also points out that the trading logic needs to be constantly optimized. Initially, he focused on the trading behavior of on-chain smart money, and later expanded his focus to team manipulation behavior (conspiracy groups), and then to the behavior of key principal addresses of individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continuously improves the accuracy of his trading decisions.
Currently, SaBiBro's main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL. These assets form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. In addition, the recent outstanding performance of #Moodeng has become an important milestone for him: it achieved a 5,000x return in a short period of time. But for SaBiBro, the significance of $MOODENG goes beyond just the profits.
The real value of MOODENG lies in the validation of the effectiveness of his data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG's principal addresses, he has confirmed the "follow the smart money" trading theory. This practical result not only enhances the credibility of his strategy, but also provides valuable experience to support future trading decisions.
How to Use Data and Discipline to Gain the Upper Hand in Trading?
In the trading process, SaBiBro emphasizes the standardized strategy of "doubling the principal and halving the loss", which is the core of his risk management. This strategy avoids the interference of market emotions through clear rules, and has verified the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.
In trading, as long as the win rate is above 33%, positive EV can be achieved. For example:
Profit-taking scenario: the asset doubles and is sold out, resulting in a 100% return.
Stop-loss scenario: the asset halves and is sold out, resulting in a 50% loss.
Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term returns will show positive growth. SaBiBro's strategy is based on probability, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset and avoiding being shaken by short-term market fluctuations.
At the same time, SaBiBro's team has developed a series of tools, with data as the core, to provide users with in-depth insights into market hotspots and principal behavior:
Token Insider Analysis (CashCash Bot)
Through big data, it analyzes the holding structure and address behavior of tokens. Its core functions include:
Principal behavior identification: filtering out addresses with transfer associations or collective trading characteristics, and classifying them as "gangs" or "principal clusters".
Snapshot and trend analysis: qualitative and quantitative assessment of the token's holding concentration, identifying whether the principals are accumulating.
Behavior model optimization: based on the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or mixers) and the on-chain capital flow trends, form accurate predictions of the principal's operations.
FOMO CALL Signals
This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on the team's database of thousands of smart money addresses. When a group of historically high-performing addresses collectively buy a token in a short period of time, FOMO CALL will issue a signal. This signal can help users quickly capture market hotspots and judge whether a token has potential for short-term upside.
These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that the accumulation degree of a token's principals has reached a high point, and the FOMO CALL signal captures the collective buying behavior of multiple smart money, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track the trend based on the data provided by the tools, combined with the strategy of doubling the principal and halving the loss.
How to Capture the Movements of Principals and Take Action Through Data?
In the cryptocurrency market, principals profit by accumulating and distributing, and their on-chain holding behavior must change during this process. The core of the trading strategy is how to capture the behavioral patterns of the principals through data. For example, during the accumulation period, the principals will exhibit specific on-chain behaviors, which can be aggregated and converted into trading signals.
However, when more people adopt similar strategies, the principals may adjust their strategies or even hide their behavior. Therefore, the effectiveness of the trading strategy needs to be constantly adjusted and optimized to identify the possible hidden behavior of the principals. SaBiBro believes that this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is the key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.
SaBiBro's strategy starts with tracking "smart money", which usually achieves a win rate of over 40% and significant returns in the market. By using tools to screen out these addresses, he and his team have established their own DAO and monitoring list, continuously monitoring a group of high-performing address clusters.
The core methods of the strategy include:
Identifying collective actions: the team has found that some address clusters will synchronize operations, including collective accumulation and distribution behavior. This regularity becomes the basis of the strategy.
Position control: when following the principals, avoid entering the top 100 holding list to maintain a low profile and not affect the principals' trading rhythm. The buy-in position is usually no more than 0.5% of the token's market value.
Signal response: when the monitored cluster appears to collectively enter a certain token, the strategy follows up with small-scale exploration to avoid exposing its own behavior too early.
Strategy Case: The Trading Process of Moodeng
The successful trading of MOODENG is an important milestone for SaBiBro's team. In September 2024, the team monitored a long-term high-performing address cluster entering MOODENG and rapidly accumulating. The team, based on the principals' past trading methods, maintained small-scale buy-ins and gradually followed up.
During the trading process, the principals tested the market's buying and selling sentiment through multiple rounds of pumping and retracing, while ensuring that the concentration of their holdings was not diluted. SaBiBro, through real-time monitoring of the holding ratio changes of these principal addresses, found that the principals would accumulate again after each retracement. This phenomenon strengthened the team's bullish confidence in MOODENG.
Ultimately, MOODENG rose from its initial small market value to a market value of hundreds of millions, and the team not only obtained high returns, but also validated the "follow the smart money" trading theory through this process.
How to Capture the Opportunities of Capital Rotation in the Crypto Market?
The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of capital may differ in different periods:
Rotation of mainstream coins: Capital may concentrate on assets like BTC and ETH, resulting in a lack of on-chain liquidity and lower trading volume.
Switching of emerging public chains and hotspots: Ecosystem hotspots may switch between public chains, such as the recent shift from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. Solana has become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects due to its high TPS and low gas fees.
Meme Tracks and Narrative Shifts: In more niche tracks, such as Meme tokens, funds will also rotate due to updates to launchpads or changes in narratives. For example, the market's focus has shifted from the high-frequency PVP market on Solana to new projects on the Base chain.
Using on-chain data tools like Dune, the Safepal team monitors on-chain trading volume and fund flows in real-time to aid decision-making. For instance, the recent capital rotation indicates that the emerging on-chain virtual economy (such as AI Agents, Virtuals) has become a hot spot, prompting the team to adjust their positions in a timely manner to follow the money flows.
Why Can Calmness and Discipline Determine the Success or Failure of Trades?
The bull market provides abundant opportunities, but also comes with high risks. In such a market, maintaining calmness and discipline is particularly important:
Independent Judgment: Safepal emphasizes that trading should be centered on verified strategies, rather than catering to market sentiment. He points out that the emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily lead traders to be misled by the "eternal bull market" narrative, resulting in excessive optimism.
Timely Profit-Taking: A major trap in a bull market is "unwillingness to sell." Even if the market is rising, taking partial profits is key to maintaining a long-term advantage. Even if you miss out on higher price levels, controlling risk should always take priority over chasing higher returns.
Stable Cash Flow Support: Cash flow is the stabilizer for calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through core business or quantitative funds can reduce dependence on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more composed.
In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, including: fear of missing out, returns not meeting expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term drawdowns. Safepal also shared his coping strategies for this:
Focus on the Trading Framework: Trades that go beyond the framework, even if profitable, are not considered successful. The core of trading is verifying strategies and refining cognition, not momentary gains.
Establish a Calm Communication Environment: Avoid being distracted by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decision-making.
Remember the Cyclical Nature of the Market: Safepal points out that the bull market is not "eternal," but a cycle of opportunities and risks. Even with a strong bullish sentiment, risks need to be vigilant, especially when the market only has a single narrative without clear supporting logic.
How to Quickly Improve Cognitive Levels?
Safepal believes that the core of personal growth lies in circle upgrades, and communicating with high-cognition people can significantly accelerate one's own cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking out of the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding people is an important way to improve oneself.
In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he has continuously learned from others' successful experiences and methods to find his own breakthroughs. The influence of communicating with others is subtle and profound. The actions and results of successful people around him can inspire him to think and further optimize his own path. He advocates "upward social networking," and through interacting with better people, he discovers more possibilities.
He also mentioned that "Rich Dad Poor Dad" is a book that has had a profound impact on his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth, teaching him to think about wealth management from the perspective of "making money work for you." He mentioned that this book broke the traditional education concept of "stable employment," inspiring him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investment.
In addition to books, his progress also benefits from other knowledge sources. For example:
Ai Aunt @ai_9684 xtpa: Focusing on on-chain data analysis, providing in-depth market insights.
Maitong @Michael_Liu93: Based on market behavior and human nature analysis, explaining the logic of the main force's behavior from another angle.
2. Social Media and Communities: By following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, quickly capturing market trends, and discussing new tracks and business opportunities with team members.
In addition, Safepal believes that the integration of cognition across Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2 and explore how to replicate their successful models to Web3. This cross-domain thinking allows him to maintain a leading edge in exploring new tracks.
Summary and Recommendations
Data-Driven and Continuous Optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been proven feasible in practice, but require continuous dynamic optimization. Furthermore, whether it's the rotation of on-chain hot spots or the shift in track narratives, maintaining sensitivity and adaptability is necessary.
Patience and Discipline: Successful trading not only depends on strategy, but also requires a stable mindset. Whether in a bull or bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment can win long-term advantages.
Establish Cognitive and Cash Flow Pillars: By having a stable cash flow as a foundation, traders can face market fluctuations with a more composed attitude. Through "continuous learning" and "circle upgrades," keep yourself at the forefront of knowledge.
