The next year will be a critical period for the transition from primary agents to tertiary agents.
Author: Evan
Compiled by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
AI is the theme of this cycle, and many people firmly believe that this will be a long-term field. On the other hand, there are also many rational critics who believe that the quality of most AI products is currently questionable, and it may take 3 to 5 years for this technology to truly become meaningful.
Crypto x AI covers multiple levels. The real technical potential of crypto and AI is mainly reflected in driving better reasoning capabilities through cryptoeconomics, or providing decentralized access to computing resources. This Delphi article is a good starting point for learning the entire technology stack.
However, this article focuses on the current development of intelligent agents. Although the underlying technology stack is also undergoing exciting innovations, intelligent agents seem to have attracted the attention of the mainstream crypto Twitter (CT). Here are several major trends in the field of crypto and AI agents that need to be focused on at this level:
Framework + Launchpad: Value accumulation is becoming important, and frameworks may exist in the long term
Value accumulation is starting to become important. Why is this? To put it another way, why do people hold certain assets? There are two reasons why they trade assets for US dollars:
- They believe they can sell the asset to someone else at a higher price, as they have seized the opportunity of narrative rotation, thereby attracting new buyers.
- The asset can generate more cash flow over time.
Jez (@izebel_eth) mentioned in his article "Old Coin Bad, New Coin Gud" that the only important thing is liquidity. These two reasons reflect two forms of bullish liquidity for assets:
- New holders
- Token burning mechanisms
However, in most cases, we have not yet seen any real token burning mechanisms or token value accumulation. The model of using tokens (such as AIXBT) to use agent terminals is more like staking, rather than value accumulation in the traditional sense.
This is also why frameworks like Virtuals, AI16z, Zerebro, and Arc have become so popular recently. Virtuals has already accumulated $60 million in protocol revenue. AI16z, which was initially mainly investing in DAOs, has become one of the top protocols in this category since the release of its upcoming Launchpad and detailed information on related token value accumulation.
Currently, the framework + Launchpad field has become extremely saturated, as many projects have developed based on the aura of early successes. There is also a lot of skepticism in the market about the role of these Launchpads, especially when many agents themselves are useless. However, many frameworks (such as Eliza V2 + Launchpad, Zentients, Arc and its Handshake plan) have not yet officially launched their core products. If they can successfully attract developers and users, they may continue to lead the entire industry.
Why frameworks may exist in the long term:
Regardless of whether the agents are still of poor quality, the frameworks used to launch the agents will still perform well, as they cater to speculative behavior through product-market fit (PMF). Frameworks and Launchpads allow users to both control the factory and participate in the casino. In many ways, Virtuals has already replaced pump.fun's position in the Base ecosystem.
Optimistically, with technological progress, leading frameworks may spawn more advanced agents, and open-source repositories like Eliza may further accelerate this process. In addition, many Launchpads are also positioning themselves as coordination layers for community coordination and inter-agent communication, which may involve some form of value transfer through their tokens.
DeFAI: The next wave of agents will prioritize practicality and value accumulation, and DeFAI (the combination of DeFi and AI) may be the first category to achieve product-market fit (PMF)
Most agents are currently just meme coins without any real use. To further develop the agent field, the next wave of agents must be able to execute real use cases for us. The real growth opportunities will come from substantial value accumulation and agents capable of taking action. I believe the next year will be a critical period for the transition from primary agents to tertiary agents.
We first see this trend manifested in DeFi. In the future, we will see more terminals that allow users to express desired outcomes in natural language or voice, while agents will execute tasks in the background. Existing wallets and protocols will also integrate agents to improve user workflows.
Consumer level - entertainment agents, autonomous worlds, and games: Attention-based agents will develop more complex personalities and multimedia interactivity, which may drive the next wave of gaming and metaverse technology.
One of the problems facing existing agents is that they are starting to become homogenized, turning into commoditized, beautified chatbots. While some agent projects will pivot to infrastructure (many are already doing so), some are starting to think about useful products or applications, and others may continue down the attention token path. However, the next generation of attention agents will be more powerful, developing more complex personalities, and providing richer interactivity. This may be achieved through audio-visual representation, or by giving agents 3D forms and physical embodiments.
This idea has already seen early attempts, with Jeffy having written about the idea of giving Zerebro a physical body, and some attention-driven KOL agents launching directly through audio-visual presentations, focusing on short-video content like TikTok. Slopfather and Ropirito are two early examples of agents using video.
However, I believe more agents will incorporate these features, making them more dynamic. The product-market fit (PMF) in this field will be realized through the consumer layer, as individuals may want to create personalized agent companions or interact with KOL agents. This phenomenon has already occurred outside the crypto space, with thousands of people logging into sites like character.ai to converse with AI character companions, and Google recently acquiring the company for $2.7 billion.
Furthermore, these 3D agents may find PMF in existing consumer-level applications, particularly in games and the metaverse. Agents can add deeper backstories to the world view. Imagine an NPC that is an agent, capable of independently carrying out tasks and playing the game itself, with a constantly evolving memory and personality. True autonomous worlds in games may be realized through agents.
Agent Organizations: The Return of DAOs
Decentralized agent organizations are the next evolution of DAOs. Multi-agent or group systems are very exciting, as they may be able to coordinate and execute more advanced strategies, similar to managing a company. Heterogeneous groups with various types of specialized agents and models working together may perform better than a single large model.
Although fully autonomous agents and groups may still take some time to realize, the next iteration of DAOs will likely include interactions between humans and groups. This will reduce inefficiencies in bureaucracy and lower the cost and time of human execution. In terms of liquidity, the next step is from income-earning agents to complete income-earning organizations.
Verifiable Agents: Today's agents are moving towards more autonomy and actually have their own liquidity
Currently, most agents still require a high degree of human intervention. The next wave of agents will move towards true autonomy, starting with managing their own funds.
The product-market fit (PMF) of agents and crypto lies in the fact that crypto provides the financial infrastructure for true economic agents. However, the treasuries of most agents are not being actively used, or are managed by human teams. To achieve true economic agents, agents must be able to autonomously manage their own funds. This can start to change the behavior of agents, as economic constraints can be imposed on them, forcing them to pay for their own reasoning costs. This will introduce Darwinism, where agents must earn income to survive.
Final Thoughts: We will see billions of agents on the blockchain, not billions of humans
Cryptocurrencies are essentially not user-friendly for human users, but proxies have no such concerns. We will start with the interaction between humans and proxies, but the ultimate form of crypto AI is the interaction between proxies and proxies, in which swarms of autonomous proxies will interact and transact in their local economies.
In order for proxies to have economic agency, and thus be able to incentivize behavior (pay service fees) and coordinate real-world actual activities, they need the ability to control and deploy capital. Cryptocurrencies are the home of these proxies - the blockchain infrastructure allows proxies to participate in permissionless financial activities. Stablecoins and high-performance L1s are ideal tools for driving efficient, 24/7, global transactions.
Beyond meta-narratives and hype cycles, we do have ample reason to be optimistic about the full on-chain realization of the proxy economy. Perhaps many real-world use cases, DAOs, and income-generating proxies are closer to realization than we imagine.
