Bitcoin plummets to $91,000, Altcoin bleed, where is the market bottom?
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On February 25, 2025, the price of Bitcoin experienced a violent flash crash. According to the latest market data, Bitcoin plummeted from $94,000 to $91,600 within just one hour, expanding its 24-hour decline to nearly 4%, far exceeding market expectations. This plunge not only set a new record for the largest single-day decline since the liquidation on February 3, but also triggered a chain reaction in the cryptocurrency market: nearly 300,000 people were liquidated across the network, with about $900 million in funds "evaporated", US stocks and cryptocurrency concept stocks fell in sync, and market panic sentiment quickly spread.
Crash Timeline: The Chain Reaction from $94,000 to $91,600
1. Key Nodes and Data
- According to market data, on the evening of February 24, Bitcoin first fell below the $95,000 mark, with a 24-hour decline of 1.66%, and then further dropped to $93,611 during the US stock market opening session.
- By the early morning of the 25th, the selling pressure increased sharply, and the price of Bitcoin plummeted by more than $2,400 within an hour, reaching a low of $91,600, with a total 24-hour decline of over 3%, a magnitude of volatility far exceeding the changes in the US stock and commodity markets during the same period.
- Affected by this, US stocks and cryptocurrency-related stocks collectively fell: Strategy fell by more than 6%, and MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms fell by more than 5%, as market funds began to accelerate the withdrawal from high-risk assets.
2. Liquidation Scale and Market Sentiment
- According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, a total of 292,552 investors were liquidated across the network, with a liquidation amount of $870 million, of which 92% were long positions, indicating that leveraged traders suffered severe losses in this decline.
- The liquidation data of Bitcoin exchanges shows that the major long positions have been completely washed out. If the price of Bitcoin further declines to $85,000, it is estimated that another $800 million in long positions will be liquidated.
- The current market fear and greed index remains around 65 points, which has lasted for a week, and investors generally hold a pessimistic expectation for the short-term trend.
- Meanwhile, the decline in Ethereum was also significant, falling nearly 11% on the day and dropping to $2,523 at the time of writing.
- Since last Friday, more than $140 million in ETH and related tokens have been stolen from the Bybit exchange, further exacerbating the volatility of Ethereum. According to CoinGlass data, about $200 million in Ethereum long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours.
- Solana remains the largest decliner among the top 10 tokens. In the past 24 hours, Solana has fallen by more than 15%, and the 7-day decline has reached 22%, with the current price falling below $140, a new low since October 2024. The chaos in the Solana ecosystem and the decline in demand for meme coins are closely related, partly due to the controversy caused by the Libra token promoted by Argentine President Javier Milei, leading to the complete collapse of the meme fever on the Solana chain.
- In addition, the upcoming unlocking of over $200 million in tokens is also seen as the last straw that broke Solana's back.
- The performance of other top tokens is also poor, including:
- Dogecoin (DOGE) fell more than 14% to $0.20;
- XRP fell nearly 12% to $2.20;
- Cardano fell nearly 12% to $0.67;
- BNB fell nearly 7% to $612.
- The Solana MEME token (TRUMP) of former President Donald Trump fell to $12.70, a new low since its debut in January, a decline of more than 85% from its peak of $73.
Causes of the Crash: Multiple Factors Intertwined Affecting the Market
1. Macroeconomic Factors: Federal Reserve Policy and US Dollar Strength
- The recent "hawkish" signals from the Federal Reserve have exacerbated market uncertainty, driving the US dollar index higher and suppressing the performance of risk assets. As the expectation of US interest rate hikes has heated up, the market's interest in high-risk assets has declined, leading to a significant correction in tech stocks like Nasdaq, which has also had a knock-on effect on the cryptocurrency market. The policy direction of the Federal Reserve has made the outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency market more evident, and the decline in risk appetite has directly led to downward pressure on the crypto market.
2. Capital Flows and the Weakness of the ETF Market
- The net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF reached $35.66 billion in 2024, but since entering 2025, the capital inflow has slowed significantly. Since February, the weekly average capital inflow of ETFs has decreased by 40% compared to January, and has shown capital outflows for two consecutive weeks. This change reflects the increased hesitation of institutional investors, and the inability of market funds to effectively enter, further exacerbating the weakness of the market. Especially when the ETF market is underperforming, the cooling of market sentiment has also significantly affected the price trend of crypto assets.
3. Policy Uncertainty: Trump Policies and Regulatory Changes
- Although the Trump administration released signals of support for cryptocurrencies in 2024, its promised "Bitcoin National Reserve" policy has not yet been implemented, and market concerns about policy fulfillment have gradually intensified. At the same time, market expectations for regulatory policies have become more divergent, also increasing uncertainty. Especially in the operations of hedge funds and institutional investors, they are more sensitive to policy changes, and the changes in basis may trigger large-scale sell-offs, further depressing the prices of assets like Bitcoin.
4. Inherent Leverage Risk and Capital Withdrawal in the Market
- In the deep correction of the crypto market, leveraged trading has become an important risk point. Data shows that there are currently a large number of leveraged positions in the market, especially the long positions that have been severely hit. With the continued decline in the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, the liquidation phenomenon has spread rapidly. The liquidation of leveraged trading not only exacerbated the extent of the market's decline, but also accelerated the withdrawal of funds, leading to further spread of panic sentiment in the entire market and driving the cryptocurrency crash.
According to the analysis of Arthur Hayes, many $IBIT holders are hedge funds that are long ETFs and short CME futures to achieve higher returns than the short-term US Treasuries they invest in. If the basis declines along with the decline in $BTC, these funds will sell $IBIT and buy back the CME futures. These funds are in a profitable position, and given that the basis is close to the US Treasury yield, they will close their positions during the US trading session and realize their profits, perhaps targeting as low as $70,000.Although the cryptocurrency market is facing an adjustment in the short term, at the same time, the news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially concluded its investigation into Robinhood's cryptocurrency department and that Strategy continues to buy BTC are positive factors for the day, but they have not been able to reverse the bearish trend in the market.
The balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen to the lowest level since 2018, and these facts are seen as potentially positive factors. If market demand rebounds, it may provide support for the price and bring some rebound momentum.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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