4E Perspective: Trump Sparks Recession Fears, Stocks and Cryptocurrencies Plunge – Where is the Bottom?

Here is the English translation of the text, with the requested translations: On Monday, concerns about an economic recession engulfed Wall Street, as U.S. stocks experienced a "Black Monday," with technology stocks recording their biggest drop since 2022. Tesla led the plunge, declining more than 15%, and the seven tech giants lost over $830 billion in market capitalization in a single day. The sell-off in the stock market has also led to a sharp decline in the cryptocurrency market. BTC fell below the $80,000 mark for the second time in three weeks, touching a low of $76,600, almost returning to the price level at the time of Trump's election victory last year. Ethereum, the leading altcoin, dropped below $1,800, the lowest level since October 2023. Since reaching an all-time high in mid-December last year, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has evaporated $1.3 trillion, equivalent to a 33% decline. Currently, the market is in a state of extreme panic. Trump's Latest Statements Ignite Recession Fears The market is concerned that Trump's trade policies and spending cut plans could push the U.S. economy into a recession. His latest statements have further heightened these concerns, causing investors to panic. On March 4, in a speech before Congress, Trump acknowledged that his economic plan could cause "some disruption," but claimed it was necessary to achieve a "golden era" in the long run. On March 6, he stated that he "doesn't even follow the market," as the U.S. economy will be strong in the long run. However, in a recent interview, Trump admitted that his trade policies could impact economic growth and did not rule out the possibility of a recession. He believes the economy is undergoing a "transitional period" and that one should not focus too much on the stock market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant and Commerce Secretary Lutnick have made similar assessments, hinting that the economy may be weakening. The latest statements from Trump and his team have undermined investors' belief that the U.S. will change its policies to address the sharp market decline, and indirectly acknowledge the possibility of an economic recession and the short-term weakness of the U.S. stock market as inevitable. Safe-Haven Assets Become the "Hot Commodity" In recent years, the main driver of the U.S. stock market has been the unexpected recovery of the U.S. economy. However, recent developments have changed abruptly, with concerns about an economic recession spreading across Wall Street. As investors rush to abandon most risky assets, the previous stable decline of the U.S. stock market accelerated sharply on Monday. According to data from Deutsche Bank, the current equity position of the U.S. market is at a lower level than the Medium, the first time since last August. According to the equity trading desk at Goldman Sachs, in the week ending March 7, hedge funds have increased their short-selling at the fastest pace since November 2024. Long-term investors have sold a net $5 billion, and the buy-to-sell ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2019. The data also shows that the selling is mainly concentrated in the technology, finance, and non-essential consumer sectors. As traders return to traditional defensive strategies, money is fleeing the stock market and rushing into safe-haven assets. U.S. Treasury bonds have seen across-the-board price increases, led by two-year Treasuries, causing yields to fall by about 8 basis points - the largest one-day drop since September 4 last year. The 10-year Treasury yield also fell 10.5 basis points, marking the sharpest one-day decline since February 13. Wall Street strategists and economists have begun to raise their forecasts for the probability of a U.S. recession, and the market as a whole is expecting more declines in the future. Accelerated Outflow from the Cryptocurrency Market, Worsening Market Sentiment Institutional investors are also withdrawing from the cryptocurrency market, with related products recording the fourth consecutive week of capital outflows. According to data from CoinShares, cryptocurrency funds saw $867 million in outflows last week, bringing the total outflows over the past four weeks to $4.75 billion. The majority of the negative sentiment is coming from the U.S., as U.S. investors withdrew $922 million in the previous week.

Followin' the inflow of capital into cryptocurrency ETP funds on a weekly Bit since the end of 2024. Source: CoinSharesThe cryptocurrency market has many long-term growth drivers, especially regarding cryptocurrency policy in the US. However, currently, the market is selling off all risky assets, and prices are largely driven by sentiment rather than rationality. When the broader financial market is plagued by too many concerns, investors may find it difficult to regain confidence in cryptocurrencies in the short term.BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted at the beginning of the year that Bitcoin could drop to $75,000. As market sentiment continues to deteriorate, this forecast is becoming more credible. In his latest Twitter post, Hayes urged investors to remain confident, stating that Bitcoin could find a Dip around $70,000, viewing this as a normal correction in the uptrend. He emphasized that the next step is to monitor the decline in the US stock market and the risk of traditional financial institutions going bankrupt, before waiting for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease policy to stimulate the economy, and then consider aggressively buying.When the storm hits, true wisdom is not to resist the current, but to seek safety and wait for the right opportunity. Rather than chasing short-term volatility, this may be a time to shift from pursuing high-risk, high-return to seeking investment channels with stable returns.As the global partner of the Argentine national team and the only proposed exchange, 4E offers Earn USDT products with yields of up to 8% per annum. Investors can flexibly choose between flexible and fixed-term deposits, ensuring that their capital is not idle while remaining ready to seize new opportunities in the market.

Additionally, 4E supports trading in US stocks, indices, foreign exchange, and gold, with leverage of up to 100x in USDT, providing an all-in-one trading experience. The exchange has also established a $100 million Risk Insurance Fund, adding an extra layer of protection for user assets. With 4E, investors can closely monitor market developments, flexibly adjust their strategies, and seize all potential opportunities.