Fear vs. Conviction: Skew Rises, But Whales Are Buying the Dip The 25-Delta options implied volatility skew is a key indicator of how the market weighs downside risk versus upside potential. It reflects the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money Puts and Calls. We're seeing the 1-month and 3-month skews continue to climb, signaling increased demand for short-term downside protection in the options market. In other words, traders remain generally bearish on BTC price action (see Chart 1). (Chart 1) Looking at spot CVDs on exchanges tells the same story. Both Binance and Coinbase spot CVDs are sitting below their 90-day medians—a clear contrast to the strong buying momentum we saw in October 2024 and March 2025 (Chart 2). This shows that it's not just the derivatives market; even spot buyers are lacking conviction at current price levels. (Chart 2) This pretty much sums up the current vibe: weekly candles are about to confirm a bearish MACD cross at the highs, and the RSI is showing a bearish divergence—casting a shadow over most investors’ sentiment. But the market always has another side to the story. Despite all the caution, we're seeing a more bullish signal: whales holding 100-1,000 BTC are starting to accumulate again! (Chart 3) We’ve broken down on-chain whale holdings, and long-term tracking shows that the 100-1K BTC cohort is the main buying force this cycle. These mid-sized whales often absorb coins from larger OGs offloading and from retail panic selling. Historically, this group tends to step in first during pullbacks. They might not always catch the absolute bottom, but over time, their moves rarely miss. At the very least, this suggests some whales see value at current levels and are willing to scale in from here. 👇 👇 ‼️ Sharing for educational purposes only, NOT financial advice ‼️ ------------------------------------------------- Sponsored by #Bitget ｜@Bitget_zh