Predictions are fun, especially heading into a new year. But I’d argue reflections are usually far more useful. So let’s do that instead. a) What was your best trade of 2025 - and why did it work? b) What was your worst trade of 2025, and why did it fail?

My reflections Best trades (hard to pick just one): Avici, Ore, Aster, Cards all ended up with very similar PnL, so singling one out misses the point. The common thread across all of them: - I was very early, before any discussion across CT. - I had clear conviction on why I was in the trade. - I entered with a defined exit framework, mostly sentiment-based. Most of these were CT-driven trades. They didn’t require outside flow or a new marginal buyer to work. Being a crypto native was the edge. I could trade attention, positioning, and sentiment directly. Every other meaningful win this year followed the same pattern. When I stayed inside my edge, results were repeatable. —— Worst trade: Pump. I sized too early and averaged down too much. But the real mistake was more subtle. This was already a well-known, high-consensus trade. Everyone was all over it. My edge is frontrunning before things become obvious. Here, that edge simply didn’t exist and I convinced myself that it did, or that I somehow had an advantage over the market. That self-deception led to forcing size, defending the position, and averaging down instead of reassessing and cutting quickly.

From the top trades only posted the ones shared publicly at points of entry, all were posted with a thesis.