1 月 5 日，市场预计特朗普将在本月某个时候公布他提名的美联储主席人选。Polymarket 上数据显示，哈塞特与沃什被提名概率已持平，均为 39%。（沃什上升 8%，哈塞特降 3%。）

<div><p>1 月 5 日，市场预计特朗普将在本月某个时候公布他提名的美联储主席人选。Polymarket 上数据显示，哈塞特与沃什被提名概率已持平，均为 39%。（沃什上升 8%，哈塞特降 3%。）</p></div>

特朗普本月或将提名下一任美联储主席，哈塞特与沃什概率已持平

On January 5th, the market anticipated that Trump would announce his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair sometime this month. Data from Polymarket showed that Hassett and Warsh's probabilities of being nominated were now equal, both at 39%. (Warsh's probability increased by 8%, while Hassett's decreased by 3%.)

<div><p>On January 5th, the market anticipated that Trump would announce his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair sometime this month. Data from Polymarket showed that Hassett and Warsh&#39;s probabilities of being nominated were now equal, both at 39%. (Warsh&#39;s probability increased by 8%, while Hassett&#39;s decreased by 3%.)</p></div>

Trump may nominate the next Federal Reserve Chair this month; Hassett and Warsh are now on par in terms of probability.

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2025 has passed in the blink of an eye. This year, the global financial market underwent round after round of extreme stress tests: geopolitical fluctuations, volatile macroeconomic expectations, fading narratives, and liquidity divergence occurred intermittently. Meanwhile, tokenization quietly accelerated, driven by compliance and infrastructure development.

It can be said that from TradFi to Web3, two previously parallel forces are converging at an unprecedented speed, aiming at the on-chain and programmable nature of various financial assets.

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If you check Polymarket's official documentation, you'll find that the price calculation is explained as follows:

You might not fully understand it after reading this, but that's okay. Let me give you an example.

A torn dollar bill

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