Bitcoin's $60,000 Crash Signals Mid-Bear Market Entry

Kaiko: "There's a possibility of a correction before further declines."

As Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted to the $60,000 level, some analysts suggest that this decline may be a "midpoint" rather than the bottom of a bear market.
Cryptocurrency data analytics firm Kaiko Research said on the 10th that Bitcoin's recent sharp price correction could represent the "halfway point" of its current bear market. Bitcoin fell to $59,930 at one point last week, its lowest level since October 2024.

In his report, Kaiko concluded that Bitcoin's price has moved out of its post-halving overheating phase and into a historically typical bear market phase. "The approximately 32% decline in this cycle represents the most significant correction since the halving," Kaiko explained, "resembling the traditional bearish trend that lasts approximately 12 months before entering a new accumulation phase."

On-chain indicators are also reinforcing bearish signals. According to Kaiko, spot cryptocurrency trading volume on ten major centralized exchanges fell by approximately 30%, from approximately $1 trillion in October to approximately $700 billion in November. During the same period, open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts fell from approximately $29 billion to $25 billion, reflecting a market-wide deleveraging trend.

Market opinion is divided on whether this decline represents a cyclical bottom. Bitcoin's price found support near $60,000, similar to the 200-week moving average, and some analysts are interpreting this as a short-term bottom.

However, Kaiko believes that this correction is not yet deep enough compared to past cycles. "Previous bear markets saw retracements of 60% to 68% from all-time highs," he said. "If a similar trend repeats itself, the Bitcoin cycle bottom could potentially form between $40,000 and $50,000."

On the other hand, there are optimists. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe described Bitcoin's drop to $60,000 as a "local bottom." He noted that investor sentiment was extremely depressed, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had fallen to levels similar to those seen in the 2018 and 2020 lows.

Experts believe the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the macro liquidity environment will be key variables determining Bitcoin's future direction. "In the absence of a cryptocurrency-specific catalyst, volatility could persist," said Kaiko. "The current phase is likely a structural rebalancing process, rather than a bottoming out."

Reporter Jeong Ha-yeon yomwork8824@blockstreet.co.kr