Binance reached a settlement agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and other agencies in November last year, pleading guilty and agreeing to pay a fine of US$4.3 billion. Founder CZ(CZ) admitted to violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws and other charges and resigned. He took the post of CEO of Binance and paid $175 million to be released on bail.
CZ’s sentencing hearing will be held on Tuesday at the Seattle Court in the United States. The US Department of Justice requested in the sentencing memorandum released last week that CZ should be sentenced to 36 months in prison and fined US$50 million to demonstrate its commitment to combating cryptocurrency money laundering. Strict supervision of activities.
Polymarket punters believe CZ be released from prison soon
However, the decentralized gaming platform Polymarket recently opened a bet on the outcome of CZ sentencing. It shows that bettors are optimistic that CZ will be released from prison sooner. The probability of being sentenced to less than 6 months is 44%, and the probability of being sentenced to 6-11 months is 44%. 17%, the probability of being sentenced to 12-17 months is 16%, and the probability of being sentenced to 18-23 months is 12%.
This means that there is an 89% chance that CZ will be released from prison in less than two years. Assuming that a gambler bets $1 that CZ will be sentenced to less than 6 months. If the bet is successful, he will get $2.22, a return rate of 122%.
In addition, the probability of CZ being sentenced to 24-29 months is 4%, the probability of being sentenced to 30-35 months is 2%, and the probability of being sentenced to more than 36 months is 10%.
Gamblers may be counting on letters of support for CZ to persuade the presiding judge to give a lenient sentence. His family, friends and others have previously sent a total of 161 letters of support, hoping that the judge can make a fair verdict after seeing a more complete CZ. , CZ also sent a letter of apology to the judge, apologizing for his "wrong decision."
CFTC seeks to strengthen regulation of prediction markets
It is worth noting that Coindesk reported that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking to strengthen supervision of prediction markets, considering banning derivatives involving U.S. elections and potentially restricting betting contracts on other events, including sports and global health crises. wait.
Although the current Republican presidential primaries are quite short, with most candidates withdrawing from the race within a few weeks because they were unable to defeat former US President Trump, according to Polymarket data , people's interest in the general election is still at a historically high level, regarding 2024 The current betting volume on who will win the 2018 U.S. presidential election has exceeded $117 million.
In theory, the $117 million in bets will not come from the United States, because Polymarket agreed to ban American users in a settlement agreement with the CFTC last year.
Previously, Polymarket had opened illegal bets on the results of Taiwan's 2024 presidential election, attracting more than 3.78 million US dollars in bets, which aroused Taiwan's prosecutorial concerns and arrested more than 30 gamblers within 2 months.
