This week, Chinese policymakers fired a ''bazooka'' of stimulus measures to revive the economy.
But: is it really a bazooka? Will it be effective?
Let's unpack it together.
1/
The Chinese real estate market is de-leveraging very hard.
Economists estimate Chinese households have suffered $10+ trillion of wealth losses as a result.
There is now a strong urge to stop the bleeding.
2/
Chinese policymakers announced the following package:
A) More interest rate cuts
B) The Chinese version of the ''Fed put''
C) Vague wording about fiscal stimulus
3/
Interest rate cuts and the ''backstop'' facility are propping the Chinese stock market to the moon.
Yet they are very unlikely to work in a balance sheet recession.
In the 90s, Japan cut rates aggressively and that wasn't the solution to the problem.
4/
Fiscal is the only real fix, and here is why.
There have been 3 key phases of Chinese leverage:
1) Corporates (red)
2) Households (blue)
3) And now fiscal is the only solution (orange)
5/
Once the benefits of the WTO deal were exhausted, China needed leverage to achieve its 5% growth target.
By 2016, corporates were tapped out so they moved to households and generated a housing bubble.
They are now deflating that, and fiscal is the only fix.
6/
So while the ''bazooka'' has been excellent at restoring market confidence, there is only one real fix for the Chinese economy here.
It's a large, large fiscal stimulus package.
7/
If you made it until here: thanks for reading!
If you want to know more about me, check my bio
(@MacroAlf)
Enjoy your weekend!
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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