Next week's macro outlook: Christmas season may be fraught with dangers, beware of liquidity shortages that amplify market volatility

According to Mars Finance news, this week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the "pivot" long expected by the market, and the central bank's statement and update on economic forecasts this week had a huge impact on the market. Market participants currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, and US Treasury yields should rise in response. Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its all-time high, and on Friday, European session Bitcoin continued to fall and briefly approached $95,000. Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new all-time high of over $108,000, and this round of decline in the crypto has had a greater impact on Altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. In addition, the US exchange-traded fund (ETF) that directly invests in Bitcoin also ended 15 consecutive days of inflows this week, setting a record of $680 million in outflows, highlighting the change in market sentiment. Due to the approaching Christmas, the market next week will be relatively calm, but there are still some relatively large data points, but due to thin liquidity, market volatility may become quite large. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows: Monday 23:00, US December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 21. For the US dollar, with the overall hawkish stance within the Federal Reserve, the dollar is not expected to easily lose its throne gained this year, although the low trading volume during the holiday period may cause some unnecessary volatility. Overall, if there is any market turmoil during the holiday period, it is more likely to hit US stocks and US Treasuries. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is not welcomed on Wall Street, and as US Treasury yields continue to rise, the selloff may intensify.